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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 May 21, 2013 3:37 PM Flag

    Trade Post Mortem- Thoughts Lance?

    Today's data said the calculated stop would be $22.147 on silver.

    I gave a stop yesterday based on yesterday's data which calculated to $21.967.

    Today's low was $22.023 making yesterday's calculation seem more correct. However, I can't accept any credit for this even though the low fell between my two stops. I was stopped out.

    It doesn't make much sense to me that today's $22.147 was violated downward.

    Starting at 11:20 am and looking at the intraday, buying never gained any real momentum. It looks like it was short cover one 5 min period, shorts being reapplied, then short cover, then shorts being reapplied for almost an hour. This seemed to coincide with momentum money watching the dollar index for a breakdown. I guess the thought was that as the dollar started to fall, one should jump into the most badly beaten of commo's -PM's. At one point gold had recovered nearly $20.00. This theory lost traction once the dollar recovered but still remained under $84.02. I think the dollar is exhausted after reaching $84.02 over 4 mths.

    My guidance at this point should be taken with a grain of salt because breaking $22.147 downside says the bull is timid. The price silver is sitting at right now is kind of interesting to me. My calc's said get more long at $22.307 (for simplicity i never gave this price) with a stop at $22.147, targeting upside objective of $22.987. This gives a risk /reward profile of 4.44, you stand to gain 4.44 x what you stand to lose.

    If I was a gambling man, I'd get long here $22.36 stopping out at $22.24 with upside target $23.00. I'm not a gambling man. And, I've met the number of times i'm willing to be stopped in one day.

    What do you think of the price action lance? deadmeat around still, what do you think?

    @chemaes44

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    • I wrote yesterday "If I was a gambling man, I'd get long here $22.36 stopping out at $22.24 with upside target $23.00. I'm not a gambling man. And, I've met the number of times i'm willing to be stopped in one day."

      After that post, the lowest price reached was $22.258, which is 1.8 cents above the stopout price I gave. If I were a gambling man I'd be up $2000 per contract today and when it hits 23.00'ish that would be another $3000 per contract booked because I would sell it all. oh well, there's next time.

      Today's play is to short between $23.07 to $23.14, targeting downside $22.79. stopping out $23.22 and reversing to a long position with bids waiting $23.17. max risk=15 cents, min reward= 28 cents for slightly less than 1:2 risk to reward. My rule is I need to make at least twice as much as I stand to lose on a trade, so the trade isn't justifiable for me.

      Remember, I've been saying a bottoming process will likely take until end of summer, so there is a good chance $23.00 will hold as a resistance. I've been known to be wrong.

      good trading
      @chemaes44

 
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