17-21 JUN Economic Stuff: Housing'sLast Gasp, CPI meh, Claims Looms, But Feds CENTER STAGE
Monday the 17th is a selloff day unless Bernookie starts preemptively about "what he meant" when he said that the bond buying could "taper", the pin in the balloon of the market recovery sending silver further into the toilet. A month to prepare for committee meatheads that asked point blank "when you going to tighten?" (Congressional horse manure for "I'm short, now's the time if you want a shot at keeping the job in Jan). Bank borrowing rate is now the same 1/4 to 1/2%, joesixpac pays ANOTHER 1/2% new housing STARTS are flourishing, it looks, prematurely.
Why he opened up his mouth at all baffles. Masterful manipulation of the market so that the dollar is trashed to make us appear competitive -- I decry the process, but you take advantage of the play, not bungle it in the end zone of your tour of duty.
The bulls in Spain may be mean and stupid, but don't get in their way. A loaded week ensues, GLTA
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Jun 17 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jun - NA NA -1.4 -
Jun 17 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Apr - NA NA -$13.5B -
Jun 17 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jun - NA NA 44 -
Jun 18 8:30 AM CPI May - NA NA -0.4% -
Jun 18 8:30 AM Core CPI May - NA NA 0.1% -
Jun 18 8:30 AM Housing Starts May - NA NA 853K -
Jun 18 8:30 AM Building Permits May - NA NA 1017K -
Jun 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 06/15 - NA NA 5.0% -
Jun 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 06/15 - NA NA 2.523M -
Jun 19 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jun - NA NA 0.25% -
Jun 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 06/15 - NA NA 334K -
Jun 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 06/08 - NA NA 2973K -
Jun 20 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales May - NA NA 4.97M -
Jun 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jun - NA NA -5.2 -
Jun 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators May - NA NA 0.6% -
Jun 20 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 06/15 - NA NA 95 bcf -
Jun 19th FOMC rate decision!!! I'm holding my breath even though my heart is firing off palpitations signaling an imminent arrest. The Feds can't decide on what to eat for breakfast, let alone making a decision on ratcheting up interest rates or slowing the printing press. So after a couple of rounds of bloody mary's laced with a couple of screwdrivers, they will bellow out....steady as she goes. Meaning, keep everything going as it now is!
Confidence in the Central Bank, congress, and our omnipotent executive branch is eroding faster than the polar ice cap. Confidence is what makes a dollar worth a dollar. Without confidence, a dollar is nothing but monopoly money. Yes! Next week will illuminate the path that the U.S. is now treading. Let's hope the lights don't go out!
The real circumstance dictates that continued monetary pollution be carried out to sustain an out-of-control fedgov... else it will collapse. The likelihood of collapse will continue to rise in any event for any number of different, but related, causes, but the only thing the monetary "authorities" (sic) can accomplish is the ongoing replenishment of federal coffers.
Already here in the real world we know that inflation is palpable—"inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". The fact that the impact is being statistically skewed so as to maintain a false paradigm will not dilute the impact it is now and will continue to have on the economy. Ultimately, the scenario will be the one we've long suspected and for fedgov and the banksters there is no going back.
That said, I feel it quite safe to add that all of this activity is nothing more than window dressing accomplished to make the weak minded feel as though their earthly god has some semblance of control over something that they obviously do not.
9 months from now the Fed MAY start scaling back on mortgage back securities if the economy is recovering, and that is three months after Bernankie leaves--and the market drops two percent in an hour and a half.
I recommend drinking heavily. I was premed, I know about these things. I guess claims tomorrow better look sucky, so that we don't show any signs of relieving unemployment--lest Uncle take the teat away.
Claims numbers up this morning, US joins China in the rout. Claims down this morning, US isn't strong enough to weather the withdrawal of stimulus. It looks like heads I win, tails you lose and silver is down 7.5%. Oy.
Existing home sales tomorrow for the market to ignore, YDM was right, the first whiff of stimulus retraction, the market trashes itself for no reason whatsoever except its belief there is no real economy, just the gods of the Fed. What a mess.
What possible reason could Bernanke have except gall at Oblamer's firing mode--and you'll miss me when I am gone.
The market is about 20% over the peak of 2007 before the fall. Maybe Bernankie thinks that is 20% too high.
GLTA, because if silver is leading the way down, we've no bottom yet in sight.