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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • quailrunrd quailrunrd Jul 3, 2013 2:11 PM Flag

    OT: ADP report - 188,000 new jobs

    And I ask, should we be screaming hallelujah at last?

    But wait!!! From the National Center for Education Statistics:

    "During the 2012–13 school year, colleges and universities are expected to award 937,000 associate’s degrees; 1.8 million bachelor's degrees; 756,000 master's degrees; and 174,700 doctor's degrees."

    "About 3.4 million students are expected to graduate from high school in 2012–13, including 3.1 million students from public high schools and 283,000 students from private high schools".

    Let's guestimate that half of high school graduates intend to go to college rather than look for any kind of work. That would leave 1.7 million high school graduates along with 3.67 million college students finishing their "higher educations", all of which will be looking for full time....or even part time...work.

    Let's see now. 5,368 thousand young Americans just finished up with their schooling and ADP reports 188 thousand found work in June. That means 96.5% of those new graduates now entering the work force...DID NOT FIND WORK WITH AN ADP CLIENT during the month of June.

    I guess that means the unemployment rate will probably go down when reported on Friday even though 5.18 million new graduates can't seem to find a job. BLS gives us statistics we can believe in!

    Oh, I almost forgot. I did not offer a "seasonal adjustment"! If you annualized the better than expected 188,000 ADP jobs number by simply multiplying it by 12 (months), you get 2.256 million jobs. This would represent an annualized 68% UNEMPLOYMENT number for these same graduates...unable to find work. But the Federal Reserve would have us believe that it now only takes 85,000 new jobs a month to keep the work force at a steady level. That will only happen if hundreds of thousands of the unemployed "give up" looking for work and become satisfied in life with merely holding a SNAP card (for their free meager food allotment).

    Go figure!

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    • With the employer mandate off the table until 2015 at least all employment bets are off the table. I predict REAL employment growth now.

    • 1.) Your numbers are overstated. A portion of people awarded diplomas are already working.
      2.) You forgot that 10,000 people each day reach age 65. If 70% are these retirees are in the workforce, that would be over 2 million retirees per year.

      You better re-sharpen your pencil or get one of those college degrees.

      • 1 Reply to floating_rate
      • You raise valid points but not everybody retires at age 65.

        "According to a 2012 Metlife report on a survey of Baby Boomers born in 1946 who turned 65 in 2011, "almost twice as many...stated that they were fully retired as were working full-time at age 65 (45% versus 24% respectively)."

        Additionally, I neglected to mention the 10% of students who drop out of high school representing another 500,000 individuals attempting to join the workforce.

        Regardless, the percentage of working age people no longer considered at part of the workforce continues to grow (since they reportedly no longer look for work). BLS unemployment figures are totally arbitrary.

        What might be a more interesting (measurable) statistic might be the actual tax revenue (receipts) of the lower 80% of the population to see if they work above poverty levels to support themselves. The bottom 80% of the population currently holds only 7% of the financial wealth of the country. I'm afraid this number will continue to grow.

        As far as "getting one of those college degrees", I have already been infected by gathering too many of them.

 
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