Hot August hand grenades as the summer dwindles into superstorm season. Chockablock with data printed as fast as paper dollars, with as much credibility. The general market is toppy, and silver waxes and wanes like "heads or tails" coin flips. Go away in May still has "worst months" August Sept ongoing, with the Fed's tapering hiding behind mythology of "bad months" during "summer vacation", more Fed chiefs get to stick pins in a twitchy market. Taper THIS *(^*&^. Option x week too.
Monday Aug 12 4-Week Bill Announcement, 11:00 AM ET, 3-Month Bill Auction, 11:30 AM ET, 6-Month Bill Auction, 11:30 AM ET, Treasury Budget 2:00 PM ET
Tuesday Aug 13 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index 7:30 AM ET, ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET, Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET, Import and Export Prices 8:30 AM ET, Redbook 8:55 AM ET, Business Inventories 10:00 AM ET, 4-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET, Dennis Lockhart Speaks 12:45 PM ET,
Wednesday Aug 14 MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET, Producer Price Index 8:30 AM ET, Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations 10:00 AM ET, EIA Petroleum Status Report 10:30 AM ET, James Bullard Speaks 3:15 PM ET Weekly Bill Settlement 3-Yr Note Settlement 10-Yr Note Settlement 30-Yr Bond Settlement
Thursday Aug 15 Consumer Price Index 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET, Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET, Treasury International Capital 9:00 AM ET, Industrial Production 9:15 AM ET, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET, Housing Market Index 10:00 AM ET, Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET, E Commerce Retail Sales 10:00 AM ET, EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET, 3-Month Bill Announcement 6-Month Bill Announcement 52-Week Bill Announcement 5-Yr TIPS Announcement
All at 11:00 AM ET, Fed Balance Sheet/Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
Friday Aug 16 Housing Starts 8:30 AM ET, Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM ET, Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM ET Equity Settlement --8-15-13 8-16-13 8-19-13 8-20-13 8-21-13
Option expiration August FRIDAY 16
If bad news is good news, Friday ought to get us a bounce in the general market and a bit of steady as she goes in silver and gold. Housing starts will suck, costs will only show a temperate rise, sentiment will be "suicidal", and option expiration will have us all looking like ADD sufferers. GLTA
...and mortgage refi's and new apps decline by 4.5% as I depicted, another sledgehammer blow on the pin poised over the balloon of the stock market "recovery". How much advance can the market obtain in the wake of divorcing itself from bad news before capitulation?
We had as much as six months of dawdling at higher levels before the rug got pulled out from under the real estate bubble. Silver advanced this morning, but silver and gold have been bouncing so hard, it's best to look at the cat's eyes to see if it's alive.
PPI is "expected" to grow by point 3% this morning--that's 3.6% annually, and way over anybody's expectations, which sets up a point 2% "better" number, which provides more scy fy excuses for tapering and interest rate pops. Which, because co's will want to keep same profit margins, actually ADD to the delusion of inflation, causing more tapering. Nobody will discover this self defeating phenom until someone wins a prize for showing economic stimulus retraction below fair market value for borrowed money actually creates higher costs to the consumer.
So where the market goes today is anybody's guess, but silver is holding its own with whopping 4% gains couple days ago. It teetertotters at wee hours in the Wednesday morning but everyone is waiting for housing starts to start to reflect those 4.5% mortgage rates--and that's Thursday and Friday. TTFN
Retail sales July is .2, when .4 was expected, while imports are getting more expensive after months of decline. Some of the buzz is being taken off the rose of higher stock prices, although there hasn't been much action this morning, silver is up 3/4% after yesterday's spectacular rise on -- ????. Gold had a short covering couple days, and silver is being dragged with it IMHO. Short covering does not an investment make, but there is safety in the pop this morning enough to give folks "follow through" fever.
The market is still digesting the retail sales figures. If it holds positive, forces other than common sense prevail. Certainly numbers are better, but the investment public would have to discount better future numbers on the retail scene than these. And that is a set up for buy the hope, and sell the actual in anticipation. 18-20% gains this year is a lot to swallow.
Time will tell.
Big news day 13 Aug pre market with retail sales focused--huge day in silver yesterday on gold short covering and China, just as pundits poo poo'd China's influence as waning. I say if it's waning, get an umbwellah.
The market is waiting for manipulated retail stats, which were significantly below expectations last month. America's newly employed, the 2.5%, are sitting out at Walmart and can only afford Salvation Army clothes, where the new surge in sales comes from BTSOOM. Tapering is next month, the Fed has appeared to want to use a sledge hammer to drive the pin in the market balloon.
Overnight silver has falled back 2/3rds percent, off the 4.5% gain 12 August. No wonder.
Retail is important, but will be blah IMHO. Housing after the 1% pop in mortgage rates? Guess. The nation's four business banks are chopping thousands of jobs, as refi's dwindle.
Nice job Bernookie, silver and gold are rebounding based, imho, on the perception the Fed won't do anything stupid going forward. Why should they change their approach now?
Monday looks to be blah. Which means, light trading, and wind blowing markets to and fro. The elephant in the room, the mistaken belief that 70% of new job growth ISN'T made up of $10-$15/ hour McJobs? somehow leads the Fed to immolate the bond buying, sending prices south, and yields and interest rates north, as they taper away from pumping $80 B a month into that market. GLTA