If 21.79 was Point 3, price is likely in Wave 4, if so one count is A B 1 2 and i ii of 3. Fibs off Wave one (21.86 to 22.70 ) yield 23.24 for the 162 and 24.09 for the 262. 24.09 enters wave one a bit at abt 23.94 back on the 29th of last month, but here lately its not uncommon to get a dime or so overlap or for price to fall short of the 24.09 and the 23.94 by a few cents. Cowboy, if you are around please look this setup over and see what you think. I m still long with calls, always clouds ones vision when in a position. 200 fib at 23.59 a possibility as well.
Okay, I have 2 conflicting thoughts / charts. In your first scenario of W 1 21.86 - 22.70 then this morning we hit the 78.6% retrace (usual W2 retrace) this morning and that means that we will rocket up to a minimum of 23.54 and either pause or continue up to 24.06. This seems very plausible in anticipation to earnings coming out on Monday. For the record, I am long at the moment also and very much favor this option. To your salient point, it does tend to add a bias towards the way we are positioned...ie at this moment long.
The 2nd option / chart shows that 22.71 was a max W4 retrace (we hit 22.70) based upon a 5 Wave Down series that began last week using data points of W1 24.70 - 23.61 and W3 finishing at 21.84 (went to 21.7994 or 21.80 if you will). W 5 Down would take us to 20.07. Now the trouble I have with this scenario / chart is that I don't see a Clear 5 Wave sequence up for the W4 C up and C patterns usually (almost always) culminate / finish in a 5 wave pattern.
I'm not sure if this helps any if at all. Just my thoughts on your post.
Thanks Cowboy, will review that data! This mornings action moved the 2 of C of this retrace, but the count is back to i ii of 3. it will take movement above 22.70 to confirm a 5 waver up from my point B at 21.86 and of course breaking below 21.86 is telling as well. A trend line from 21.79 to the top of my point 1 ( 22.70 ) hits 23.54 / 23.60 late Friday afternoon. The low price on 10/30 may be the resistance. Just got gap fill! So we see soon if gap resistance can be overcome.