entered folks minds until EXISTING REAL ESTATE inflates to Summer 2007 valuations, killing $100 TRILLION in derivatives off the books since Bernanke's gift '09--and Yellen gets a chance to lower the unemployment objective to 5.5%, THEN "cripple" the economy with higher borrowing rates. If inflation stays below 2%, there's an argument that says never, but at 200K revised, including all those temp hires, we still flounder around 7.3% with all those unemployed kids in Mom's basement comprising a spitload, and student loans hanging over everyone's head. 7 Nov overdone, 8 Nov in the past, inventories will show a leap. But you can't build an economy on shelved goods, somebody has to buy them. 84% employed hasn't changed, and they're still sweating. GLWT
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Nov 13 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 11/09 - NA NA -7.0% -
Nov 13 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Oct - NA NA 0.3% -
Nov 13 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Oct - NA NA 0.1% -
Nov 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Oct - NA NA -$120.0B -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Initial Claims 11/09 - NA NA 336K -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/02 - NA NA 2868K -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Trade Balance Sep - NA NA -$38.8B -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q3 - NA NA 2.3% -
Nov 14 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q3 - NA NA 0.0% -
Nov 14 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 11/09 - NA NA 35 bcf -
Nov 14 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 11/09 - NA NA 1.577M -
Nov 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Nov - NA NA 1.5 -
Nov 15 9:15 AM Industrial Production Oct - NA NA 0.6% -
Nov 15 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Oct - NA NA 78.3% -
Nov 15 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Sep - NA NA 0.5% -
With the Fed YELLEN for more QE (can you hear me now?) and unemployment claims above consensus, the market finally went positive as bad news there is good news for stimulatum excretatum.
Expect silver and gold to resume march back to $30 level in short fashion, or should I say long fashion. The only stink in the ointment, is the budget deal in January, which is timed to make waves just as the year turns over. Last time Congress understood it was in the way, we went through that impasse hurdle like "buttah".
Mortgage index FELL 1.8% last week on IMPROVING mortgage rates, so much for excuses to taper, RAISE mortgage rates, and kill the fledgling housing recovery, which has 27% to go to make PARITY with 2007 pricing, which turns all those 100 TRILLION in derivatives into sushi.
Fed blather at the membership level, the argument is supposed to temper the market as along as, and I agree with Moses here, the unwashed and brainless buy that premise. Unfortunately, the market is made up of the unwashed and brainless, so you watch that herd and the way in which it stampedes, not whether they have a clue as to whether the Fed guards tell the truth or not.
Tomorrow first hard eco data of the week, but silver took a shellacking today, as if QE was going away in Dec. Yeah, Dec 2017.
The data don't support tapering. Mortgages would rise, real estate sales would flounder, then existing home prices would dive to make up the difference represented by the increased costs to carry a loan, bond market loses half its demand, bonds would crash, and equities emptied in sympathy to "make up " for "losers".
This is fourth grade math, and it appears non of the financial analysts passed anything but bulltschitt 101.
Another Fed chief opens his mouth on a slow news day to clamor "the market should be preparing for the taper". Why the O(&)(&*(& do these people insist on putting a pin in the balloon of the market and the real estate recovery only halfway finished? And, how do you prepare? Go out and jog?
Buy puts and inverse ETF? 3/4 the market is not sophisticated to use those hedging tools, even tho they are 200 years old.
Unbelievable. Silver is down another 2/3%. Market is scheduled ANOTHER selloff BEFORE that idiot opened his mouth.
No matter how inflationary and stupid, one thing Bernookie was incapable of doing, is closing ranks amongst his own "TEA PARTY" constituents. Wow, this is really dumb, IF you believe the ten year rate, needs to stay low, to keep real estate reflating, now at August 2004 prices, leaving at least half those who bought between that date and end of 2006 gurgling underwater, and all those derivatives still threatening the world $100 TRILLION deep.
Who is the JERK that keeps negatively scoring blurbs designed to reflect reality? Some folks can't handle the truth.
Taper is nonsense. Inexcusably stupid analysis of what will cause the Fed to taper published by brain dead "financial analysts", who, like a coin flip may be right someday. Bernanke, who couldn't time the real estate bust either, blathered about pulling the plug on the comatose economy May, and reverberates forever.
a. The Fed won't begin tapering until early 2 0 1 8. Yellen, STARTS Jan 14, and will wait to the 2nd-3rd FOMC meeting to publish anything but "the economy is improving slightly but fragile, will continue bond buying for the foreseeable future." Then Fed will adjust "target for unemployment" to 5.5% not 6.5%, a much more historically accurate employment number.
b. More importantly it will take till 2018 to reflate housing to 2007 levels and wipe 100's of TRILLIONS in derivatives off the bank books, which Bernanke took off bank books as "too volatile", remember? When housing reflates 27%, THEN worry about tapering.
c. Not to mention, how to service the $17 TRILLION at 5%, not 1/4%, pulling 7-10% out of the GDP? No way.
d. Why continue bond buying and low borrowing rates? Business can't be trusted to hire, they'll use irate costs as excuse to squeeze current workforce harder, not make new hires. They're not hiring now--why give them more excuses?
e. Employment numbers are squishy, revised backwards every reporting period, having little credibility but investors have no where else to go.
f. But look at the quality of those jobs sux--bartenders, retail sales (XMAS hire), $12-15/hour jobs, barely above minimum wage. 3rd world nation stuff.
g. Much XMAS hire will disappear January. That will give Yellen further evidence to keep buying bonds.
There is very little "truth" to be found in government promulgated statistics. The sole function of their pronouncements is perception management. To think otherwise is self induced confusion.
I am, however, not the "thumbs down" critic, but I'm neither the "thumbs up" one. I give little to any credence to the information spewed. They simply have too much to hide and their control mechanism is at stake. Lies mean nothing and reacting to them could prove quite costly.