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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • we_are_borg we_are_borg Nov 18, 2013 11:49 AM Flag

    Volume

    Did it ever occur to you TA wizards out there to look at volume AND price action? If you wanna know why SLW (and PMs in general) are waffling around right now, just look at the accumulation / distribution line for SPY -- it's been particularly robust since mid-October. Money is pouring into the S&P -- not PM's. Everyone is giddy with the DOW hitting new highs -- there's no fear in this market, therefore, no need to hedge with PMs. Even the news out of Europe has been fairly quite over the past six months -- no new panics.

    Now look at SLV: the A/D line has been drifting down since mid-August -- THIS is why SLW is trading in the low-20's. Until the A/D trend changes, or at least levels out, don't expect much from PM stocks. On a three-year chart we see SLV A/D peaking about a year ago & has been drifting down since.

    I went long SLW sometime ago @ $28 (admittedly not my best timing effort, LOL).. Currently writing covered calls under water (JAN 25's ) with no fear of being assigned. Happily collecting $400-$500/mo in premiums, nice discretionary income while waiting for PMs to come back in favor. SLW is a GOOD SOLID company, no concern there. I check my positions maybe one or twice a month.

    No fuss, no worry, no crayons, no rulers, no charts, I'm out enjoying life! You should try that once in a while Sharpie. Turn off the computer, put away the charts and go DO something today! Go for a walk, go to the gym, visit an old friend, take in a movie, have lunch at a nice restaurant. It's life, use it or lose it!

    OBTW: anyone else out there writing CC's on SLW? I think there was one person but can't remember handle. Anyone care to start a CC/options-related thread?

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    • We do look at volume too. No need to be condescending though. Look, I appreciate everyone's opinion (unless it's a spammer) and thoughts on here as it gives multiple insights. If you're tired of our T/A posts, use the ignore button. BTW, it was very honest of you and showed courage to admit that your bought in at 28.00 showing others that you didn't analyze that trade very well. Your insights on the cause of the 2007/2008 financial meltdown was caused by government intruding on the private sector housing market initiated by Carter and put into high gear by Clinton was dead on. Getting away from the PC now and then is good advice and helps to clear one's head and come back refreshed for a better trade. However, Sharpie and I do like to analyze and bounce ideas out there to everyone and ourselves make better trades. If this is irritating to you, by all means, put us on ignore. Just remember, this is a forum for discussion and you're not obligated to read it or post on it. Good Luck To You and All on Here.

      • 2 Replies to cowboyinill
      • Cowboy,

        "... showing others that you didn't analyze that trade very well"

        Ahh-h-h-h, I beg to differ,my friend, I saw SLW as a COMPELLING buy at the time!

        Bought on 13-Aug. All money-flow indicators, Accum./Distr. & ease-of-movement indicator showed that SLW was on the move with solid support. This was that nice move that stared back in mid-July. First exit target was $30, second at $32, third at $34, etc. -- we never go there. Had major technical sell signal around Labor Day, saw weakness developing & momentum stalling, thought about selling for small loss but decided to keep & write nice CC's instead.

        Not a market timer per se so I don't obsess over the current PPS; the strategy is to hold a good stock, collect a little divy & write CC's for whatever extra monthly income I can generate. I steered clear of the major divy payers because I thought most of them were overvalued & ripe for a major correction (so much for THAT theory!).

        Considering SLW was selling near-$40 about a year ago, a return to $30 from here seems reasonable to me over a 12-mo. time frame, but not much is going to happen over the next 3 mo. IMO -- just waffling around in the low-to-mid-20's area. We need a big "breakout" geo-political event to boot us out of this range.

      • I appreciate you and Sharpie taking the time to share your opinions . I bought SLW a little high and have been watching for a dip low enough to average out; have decided it may not get any lower....

    • Consider SPY DONE! There, something more to talk about. The rest, you can't judge since you don't know my circumstances. I'm out more than I want to be and am able to be just keeping up with kids and grandkids.

    • yup, I'm writing CC. You're spot on with everyone feeding the S&P / Dow monster which is growing into a bubble. I got heavy into PMs over the summer because I figured they would rally hard in a market correction which I figured was due by fall...still waiting for that correction but it looks like the bubble will get bigger with unbridled optimism and no fear in sight yet. I'm in SLW at $25 and some GDX at $30 (ouch) was hoping they would go a little higher before I write this month, they've been making me good income so far though, but this month is looking not so good. I think I need to go on a hike and get away from the computer like you're saying.

      Sentiment: Hold

      • 1 Reply to sugarsail42
      • That's the same reasoning I decided to trade SLW. With all this money printing ie...QE infinity by Yellen, in my mind would lend to SLW and Silver moving higher as it makes the dollar worth less. Additionally, at some point, I'm thinking real soon if not now, the QE (money printing) will not have the desired affect of increasing the market (bubble) upwards. This is possibly the reason for the S&P churn. At some point, it will only keep things at the same price levels and will not have the desired effect of artificially inflating the indices (Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P). That's when imho silver and SLW should move up.

 
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