Last week I wrote about the downside risk to the mid $19.xx level in silver. I indicated that it wouldn't become bullish unless it could tap above $20.50 or higher, it didn't, so it went lower.
We've come close enough to the forecast low that it seems an attempt is being made for a bullish reversal. If you get $19.944 print or greater in silver today, it marks a turn bullishly at least in the short term. It is trying. It's come up to the $19.90 level. The danger is half the open interest is now on march 2014 so I don't think there's enough juice in the tank until silver switches to the back month (to March from Dec )and all the volume can muster it's combined strength to assert some new direction. I still have $19.35 and $19.633 as targets and until they clear or have a print, the danger is still towards those prices.
It is holding onto this $19.943 level for dear life. For the last 2 hrs it's average about $19.95. Bulls need to take this past $20.235 silver Dec contract before 3:00pm for this to maintain some momentum, else this returns back to having downside risk.
When rolling over from the front month to the back month futures contract, the volatility can "fool ya" but if the price takes out major hurdles, the rollover is just noise.
For the truly conservative, silver needs to move up off these level by at least 10% to return to "fund manager" worthy marginal bullish status. It needs a 30% move up off these levels for the weekly chart to trip bullish signals. Back in the day, 10% in a month was a breeze, today an Herculean effort.