Are we at the bottom yet? Based on the price action, I'd guess so. "But it ain't over 'till it's over" as Yogi Berra used to say, and there's no way of knowing if JPMorgan et al are done sticking it to the technical funds and small traders. But there isn't much meat left on their bones, as they are so mega short already, and it's hard to imagine that they would go any further down that road.
But it's what happens on the next rally that matters, and what "da boyz" do when it begins. I've always wondered what might trigger it, and I've always thought that when JPMorgan et al finally allow prices to rise for real by not showing up as short sellers of last resort, there will be some black swan event happening at the same instant. It could be economic, monetary, political, or now maybe even military. But whatever it is, it won't be by happenstance, as there are no coincidences anymore.
What makes Whitmore's article timely and thought provoking is the ongoing tug of war between inflation and deflation. Central banks around the world are desperate to spark some price inflation to help their debt-burdened governments and businesses. Printing more money makes existing money worth less and lessens the burden of debts owed.
It hasn't been so simple, though. While the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank buy debt securities and grow their balance sheets attempting to light inflationary fires, the velocity of money (GDP/M-2) and the money multiplier (M-2/monetary base) have slowed to a crawl.
In September of 2008, when the financial world crashed, velocity was 1.89 and the money multiplier was 8.61. Five years later, velocity is 1.54 and the money multiplier is 3.10. These are the lowest readings for either ratio since the Federal Reserve started keeping the relevant data