Sorry for late post. Was otherwise occupied during the long weekend. I'm with Sharpie and Kaz on this. Hold tight. We are in a (let's call them small, medium and large) a Wave 3 up pattern on a Medium chart which shows a typical price top of 21.84. On a smaller corresponding chart that works the waves of the medium chart, it shows a top of 21.81 based on Wednesday and Fridays action. So, once in this area, we will go down (Wave 4) to 21.55, 21.37, 21.23, or 21.09 with the most likely being 21.23. W4's take the longest to complete and so I'm guessing a day or two. Then we head back up to complete the Medium Wave 5 at 23.06.
So to sum up most likely scenario...We go up W3 to 21.84...then down W4 to 21.23, then up again W5 to 23.06. Once there, we do an ABC correction down. (ABC's happen pretty fast when they start.).
Happy Thanksgiving Cowboy, Sharpie, Kazansky, and all! May you, and your near and dear, have a happy, peaceful, and wonderful year ahead!
Just wanted to thank all of you for sharing your analysis. More comfortable staying long now, and seeing how this plays out.
Consider 1.62 X W one from the IV retrace of 20.89 = 22.14 . . . 162 % extension of the move 19.87 to 21.26 = 22.14 . . . . 200% extension of the move from 20.38 to 21.26 = 22.14 ... 200% of the move 19.87 to 20.92 = 21.96, a possibility and the 162% of the 19.87 to 20.92 move = 21.57 the obvious point for W5 to end. The evidence for 21.26 being W 3 is RSI is still high there on the 30 and 60 min chart, guess it will be a good test of the theory that RSI is highest at the III of 3 point of most waves..
I would stay long. Anything closing over 20.70 today and the trend is up. 21.90 is the next major resistance on that downtrend line where it has failed for months. I would hang tight here see what happens as the silver chart is bullish for the first time in a couple of months. Let it breathe
We have had HHs and HLs the last three days. High today likely in the 21.50 area, retrace late today or Monday will likely be hwb for a lower day or two, then if we don't make a high next week higher than 21.50 we may consider the trend broken, right now the trend is up.
Excellent TA. Nice to find a thread based on something other than CNBpseudonews. I differ only in that I try to look out past the daily machinations, and not only base trades on fibs and candles, but futures too (especially futures) and HFT tells. It's tough relying on minute by minute signals when the big block trades are spread across a dozen exchanges by trading desks on a mission, with a set goal (delivering or selling 2 or 3 million #$%$ a promised price over the course of weeks). The danger lies with the GSCOs and others that can attack an entire sector like they have today in the metals futures. It skews the TA, and they know it.