I see a period from late 2008 to mid 2010 that showed a nice steady increase in price from about 11 to about 17 before the price went parabolic and more than doubled from jul 2010 to apr 2011.
Trying to CONSERVATIVELY project this period of relatively sane increases forward I cannot help arriving at a current price of something like $30, but nothing less than $25 at even about 1/2 of the increases in that period.
Clearly the psychology of having a nice steady increase per year is entirely broken because we've had to watch those huge increases get unwound, HOWEVER, i can't think why taking this kind of view (5 years, 50 years, whatever) doesn't make a whole lot more sense then trying to make sense of the market noise and manipulations playing out from week to week, even hour to hour.
(I tried to include a link and my post was automatically deleted but I'm using the PM Bull dot com Silver Spot Price with time interval set to 1 month.)
I'd love to have the technical wizards here attempt to interpret a period of time such as 5 years.
Do it the easy way without having to sit at you computer every day watching SLW all day long.
Look at the 10 yr mo chart. How often has the MacD crossed over in those 10 years?....3 times should be your answer. Those crossovers don't come around very often, but when they do, go long or short. Also look at the EMAs 5 and 10 for crossovers. These 2 EMAs often give early clues. An EMA 13 and 34 will indicate a change in trend......up or down.
At this time, it is the EMA 5 and 10 on the daily that is keeping SLW from moving up. SLW keeps finding resistance at these 2 areas. The bearish EMA 34/13 indicates the trend is down for SLW.
I have been studying the spot price of Silver, not SLW, because I think it makes for a clearer picture of what will drive SLW upward again when this happens. As far as I'm concerned SLW is like Silver Plus Plus. SLW will do well enough even at 20% less than Break-even kind of prices for a majority of mines.
Complimentary to a longer view, to my thinking anyway, are the facts related to actual mining costs. Clearly the price to produce an ounce of silver does not mean the market price cannot go below this price, however given enough time mines will halt longer termed expensive activities, and weak mining operations will be shut down.
Before I invested in SLW I researched what I could find on what it costs to produce silver and I thought I found a very useful seeking Alpha article that told me what I hoped to learn: there's been cost inflation and the current costs are great than $20 for all but a few mines (my words).
Discussion about what the price of Silver "should be" in the longer term seems to be missing
I'm a longer term investor, I'm not ready to sell if I'm up 10%, I'm looking for 30 - 40 percent before I drop any again - if I can see or/ find evidence that this what I think is what is going to happen within the next 2 years or so.
Hello Swarm, I am not very accomplished a time frame projections, however, on a longer term price projection, I see us running almost straight up from here to 47.62, give or take a dollar then a correction to 38.40 (which will take a while to unfold as it is a Wave 4) and then up to a 77.51 before a big correction. I can see this happening within a few (2-3 years) years time frame with the 47.62 happening quite fast. This is based upon my Largest Chart. As the waves unfold, it's easier to get more exact price targets.
To sum up on my Large Chart
We are currently on the MAJOR 5 WAVE UP which ultimately goes to 77.51. Below is the Intermediate breakdown of how we get there within the next few years (2-3 years) if not sooner (again, I'm not strong at time frames)
Below is Intermediate 5 Wave sequence culminating at 77.51
Wave 1 (up) - Completed 17.78 - 29.17
Wave 2 (down) - Just finished imho at - 19.23
Wave 3 (up) - Strong move up to typical top (could be higher) of - 47.62
Wave 4 (down) - Takes a long time to manifest & looks like a long straight line most likely - 38.40
Wave 5 (up) - Final top - 77.51
Then we head down fast and hard. I know you wanted time frame projections, but I hope this helps a little with the price projections. Good luck to you and all here.