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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • sharpie3444 sharpie3444 Dec 14, 2013 8:16 PM Flag

    19.23

    The COT report indicates the powers that be are shorting silver heavily. Nick Laird sent me his updated "Days of World Production to Cover Comex Short Positions" chart, which is derived from the data in yesterday's COT Report---and happily announced that silver was now back on top as the most heavily shorted precious metal on Planet Earth once again. ED Steer .................. I am beginning to wonder if the move up from 19.23 might be a retrace with another low to come. If so the likely EW count would be a W4, If the move to 21.32 were to be viewed as an A of the abc retrace , then 19.81 could be considered the B, C would then = A at 21.95 thoughts ?? Considering 21.79 is I of C, so even if W4 measures to 21.95 it may be capped at 21.95

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    • Sharpie, you might want to take a squint at Dan Norcini's comments on the COT report. They are a bit contrary to what you have reported here in that he says the traders that count are still net long and he is looking for more catagories to be net short as a contrarian indicator. He is also of the opinion that the recent rallies have been mostly short covering and not new long positions which is why the rallies have not had legs. It is a good read. Other commentators of note are sounding like we are nearing a bottom, much like I think you and Cowboy are suggesting. I tend to think we are near a bottom as well, but I keep being reminded that an investor can go broke being right while waiting for the market to agree.

      At this point, I believe we are near enough to the bottom (and $17.75 may have been that bottom) that scaling in for a long term position is becoming a more acceptable risk. The fundementals point that direction and the TA seems to be pointing that way in a general sense, albeit the wave theory is predicting oscillations. When TA points more confidently to an uptrend, I am going to buy SLW at the money LEAPs as well. Any thoughts?

      • 1 Reply to sandybeachdave
      • Norcini says that these big and powerful speculators are what drive our markets. They continue to sell silver rallies. Either they are going to have to be forced out by some concerted buying or the path of least resistance in silver is lower.

        From a technical standpoint, an upside violation of key overhead chart resistance levels is required to break the downtrend. According to Norcini’s technical analysis, it is just above the $21 level (extend towards $21.25) where the bears would get concerned. If the bulls can take prices up to those levels, and NOT FALTER, they will spark some serious short covering.

        Until then, silver rallies are likely to be sold
        ...... There seems to be a silver resistance level at about 20.60 / 20.75 area that we need to watch, if it breaks or holds !!

    • W5 of C measuring from 24.89 as "B" and the start of the C wave would be around 18.50, worse case I guess it could double bottom at 17.75

 
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