tapering fights inflation, inflation is precious metal's friend, but you're fighting a market selloff if tapering starts, no matter how dumb that is, winners get sold with losers.
no tapering means inflation monster continues to build steam, even if it isn't in the official figures (which neatly remove food, fuel, clothing, shelter, anything valuable to get the numbers so they read the way they're "intended" to read.) This is PM friendly, but runs right into the useless inflation figures, which haven't taken into account the dollar a pound growth in the price of chicken and bacon, a whopping 20%, and that is the tip of the iceberg.
PM are the right place to be, but this "time" you can be dead right. This knife has been falling fifty percent since whenever, and I'd wait for the turn to go long.
The danger is that much of the $2T that were pumped in through QE1-QE3 did not make out of banks' vault but had only helped the banks' reserves. Credits are still difficult to attain for general public while getting a mortgage is just as hard even to be qualified.
The Fed's fear is that the now $2T of liquidity may suddenly find its way out of the bank's vault which would increase the speed of money flows between transactions (velocity of money). It is not the "if" but rather it is the "when" that happens the Fed will have to immediately halt any QE and will be required to dump bonds back into an open market to remove any excess liquidity by way of banking system. This is to abruptly force interest rates down and to interrupt any runaway inflation.
it's the other way around
no tapering means the economy is still weak and inflation expectations low,
tapering means the economy is getting better for real and inflation expectations will rise ,and PM will follow up..
the crash under massive qe only dimonstrates my point...