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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • koufax62 koufax62 Dec 19, 2013 5:59 PM Flag

    Valuation

    No $3.00 nonsense, but more a realistic cause for concern.

    IMO "15" X FY '13/'14 EPS @1.00 + or - a few cents is where this stock HAS to go and soon!

    Obviously 357M shares out with a 15 handle assigned to it values the stock around 5.4B - 5.5B which does not under value the stock at all considering current and near term sentiment in the PM space in addition to current debt load vs cash on the balance sheet.

    The 15 / 16 PPS should hold for one of the better insulated in an industry under siege UNLESS spot prices continue to fall and current estimates are again revised downward due to rising production not keeping pace to offset falling prices.

    Any reasonable comments?

    Koufax.

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    • More directly to the point, you are probing via technical analysis for a near term bottom to play "the next" short term bounce within the current 13 month long downtrend.

      Obviously, your TA words of wisdom flashes a caveat emptor warning label for anyone considering a LT position right?

      My advise sharp is to set a tight stop on ANYTHING above maybe 2%-3% below the 52 week low @17.75 because if you don't, you may very well become a much longer term holder than you originally planned. Needless to say, if a double bottom fails definitively by dropping 2%+ below the low on the usual stop loss raid b/4 rebounding, then it's an abandon ship free for all until signs of support at a new low (IMO 14.65-15.00) before the rebound you are hoping to position for finally gets under way.

      Playing bounces within long duration bear trends,,,,not interested, but to each his own as they say!

      Koufax.

    • I don't follow fundamentals. For me all information is in the price, if price is increasing, buying pressure and demand / accumulation is going on, if price is decreasing people are selling and taking whatever they can get. Happens every day. If your model don't match price, perhaps the p/e you are using is not correct. People buy on expectation and a lot of people expect silver prices in the $30.00 / $33.00 range sometime this Summer, so they may be willing to pay up a bit to ensure they get the ride. People fear "missing the ride", until they are under water, then sell at a loss, its human nature and has to be overcome with mental discipline. And most of us have to learn the lesson over and over again . . . one reason I trade instead of invest in stock.

 
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