when all cross the land,
personal income climbed
(for most tho 'twas bland)
And looks like goods ordered
may take a small hit
and our fave-mortgage index
still just looks like tschit.
On deficits, on mortgage rates,
on house prices that fall,
on claims that climb weekly
on employment stalled.
All is ignored, stock worshipers whine
into empty skies on cholesterol dine.
But silver will falter
as deflation persists
Don't catch falling knives
cuts really hurt like tschit.
Dec 23 8:30 AM Personal Income Nov - 0.5% 0.5% -0.1% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM Personal Spending Nov - 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% -
Dec 23 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Dec 23 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Dec - 83.5 83.3 82.5 -
Dec 24 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/21 - NA NA #$%$ -
Dec 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Nov - 3.0% 2.2% -1.6% -2.0%
Dec 24 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Nov - 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% -0.1%
Dec 24 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Oct - NA NA 0.3% -
Dec 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Nov - 430K 433K 444K -
Dec 26 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/21 - 350K 350K 379K -
Dec 26 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/14 - 2850K 2850K 2884K -
Dec 27 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/21 - NA NA -285 bcf -
Dec 27 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 12/21 - NA NA -2.941M
No matter what the unemployment claims today, and they still should reflect part timers of the XMAS season, the market in general will be up, and silver struggling. Why? If claims are higher, the market will bank on Yellen to drop tapering to minimum essential, not at all, or even a small bump, given housing prices for the under $650K crowd have DECREASED FOUR PERCENT past six weeks as mortgage rates have climbed and resale faltered. OR, if unemployment decreases, a likelihood as the last gasp of XMAS hires hits, the market will go up thinking all is well. This is a general market with few impediments, and my money is on the Russell 2000 for the lazy, and individual tech issues for the more avant garde. We just had a 40% pop this year, and I expect a 20% pop in 2014.
The big bugaboos, of budget and tapering, are known, the only Grinches left are the debt ceiling fiasco of holding the country ransom don't make it to the table until February, insuring the old wives tale, what happens in January shows us the rest of the year, becomes true.
As for silver? Look at kitco and see it the only PM faltering, as currency risk pulls more eyeshades over lemming eyes as they head headlong for the inflationary bump to come--you can't ignore decreasing size or substitute dog food for filet mignon much longer in your fudged stats.
So for the next week and month, it's smooth sailing in the general markets, oil is faltering, which may, China is stumbling back into higher growth, Japan is at a five year high in the Nookie 225, Bernookie has set up Yellen for heroine status by pulling the taper trigger about three years too early--and just in time for her to consider changing the tapering landscape tilting the bias AWAY from the split to favor mortgage backed securities.
Jobless claims down 42K, but the number of CONTINUING jobless by 14 Dec has INCREASED by about the same amount, and no mention is made of the XMAS season. Some high paying new jobs in the health care sector (fancy that) showed up last week in the new jobs business along side retail, but frankly, nobody mentions the big hit that is to be expected when all those part timers take a hike in January.
Silver blasts forward about 2%, and the general market is making another all time high today. The one with room to run, is the NAS, which is trying to catch up with 2001 bubble year, about fifteen hundred points away.
I suspect we will reach an all time high in the NAS in the early 2015 time frame.
For now enjoy the pop everywhere.
New Home sales is the big gremlin today, as mortgage rates have spiked so badly, mortgage refi's have hit the toilet--but--when will the 4% hit home prices under $600K took in the past six weeks hit the fan? And will the market view that as bond buying anti tapering friendly? And will the market believe that is a probusiness thing again? I can see the herd milling about, waiting for its one day a year of dysfunctional family reunions to grumpily return to the market on Thursday, their nuts having been thoroughly roasted on an open fire?
The market closes at 1PM EST today and after market floats along till 5PM. But I suspect not a creature will be stirring, and the mice have indigestion. TTFN.
The oldest game in the west, new homes fell like a rock, but uh, we made a mistake and last month before was 30K better than estimated.
Uh huh. Have another sheep dip sandwich, it looks like the party is going whether merited or not, and shareholders will eat anything.