I have traded this last year and now I need some serious advice. Since I am a trader and a chartist I have a serious issue.
My new girlfriend has about $200,000 in a gold fund. Ive known this and ive been telling her for a year now to sell sell sell...However Its not my money and she seems to rather watch her gains vaporize then actually keep them, She first bought her fund 15 years ago and has nice gains, but all shrnking.
Now I find out her fund owns 80% miners and 20% metals, HOLY COW...That's when I raised the red flag. Her portfolio manager sucks, not once has he ever advised her to sell jack shot.
Anyways, This is NOT the place I would be selling anything, I am a buy low sell high kinda guy, so selling here really sucks. But she does have gains and I think these miner stocks might find bottom, BUT WHERE ???
What could possibly happen in 2014, that would siginificantly raise the price of metals and miners?
Frankly, I don't see anything great happening in the next few years. But Im not a gold silver bug either. I just trade, I don't care what I trade, as long as its wild and fast.
Thanks, Id apprieciate some real honest input.
the investment banks are manipulating the metals markets. they do not deny this and were taken to court over it. in court the govt determined that morgan chase, bank of america, the melon bank, et al could manipulate the price of metals however it wanted so long as it did not drive the price down to what it(the govt) considered an "uneconomic price". so what will be the price of gold and silver in the future? the price of metals will be whatever the investment banks want it to be provided they do not drive the price to an "uneconomic" level.
so you need to ask yourself this question: what is an "uneconomic" price for gold and silver? because if i ran an investment bank and i could manipulate the price i would drive the price down as far as i could...down to 5 bucks an ounce..maybe 3. shorting like hell all the way down. id make a fortune in the panic selling that ensued.
but then there is the question of what is an uneconomic price. might that not be the price where gold and silver mines cannot operate and supply the market? when these mines shut down that creates unemployment, and lost revenue(and thus diminishes the tax base). i think the govt will step in and stop the investment banks from applying 'law of the jungle" capitalism to run its course. $15-19 is a natural bottom for silver and for gold i dont think it could drop much lower than $500. gold is not an industrial metal and thus has no economic uses. thus the concept of an "uneconomic price" does not apply.
pepper...., after reading your original post more carefully, I think I see where you may be coming from...I apologize for sounding somewhat cavalier. To each his or her own method be true. Best of luck to you and your girlfriend..
Assuming the 32 million in real estate and $200 K in a gold and miner fund, I think she ought to sell some real estate and buy Sprott's gold and silver funds (PSLV and PHYS) - diversify...Of course the next consideration is the leverage she has on the RE. Is it debt free? Frankly, it seems you might not know enough about your girl friend's finances to be even looking for advice....Certainly would know all / and she about yours before tying any knots.
What's going to make gold and silver and the miners rise? For starters:the western gold is being drained to the east and the trend shows little sign of abating. Meanwhile, the short futures position in the metals is heavy of the speculative type which has no gold to deliver. This on the surface smells of a very bullish situation....in time I suspect it will prove to be so....
While we all share your concern about the last 2+years of trend; we probably all wish we had her problem. She's obviously a pretty smart cookie if she put that RE position together on her own and it isn't mortgaged...don't get her tick off at you by acting to be the more investment smart.....I mean, as others have noted, who are the one you looking for advice.....here.
WHY ON EARTH would you post a question to a board you don't know and who's only purpose is to pump and dump? Any quality trader isn't wasting time here, present company included.
If you are a trader and chartist you also wouldn't waste your time here. You'd be talking with your REAL friends or mentors.
Go talk to your financial counselor or go get one.
FK off #$%$.
Actually, Given I was trading this POS well before it tanked and yes I am a trader, I thought Id see if anybody could offer words I have yet to find. and I have used them all.
You are a prime example of what is wrong with these boards.
Of course that's NO news to you.
Financial advisors don't know squat about the market. Id rather burn money then ever let some suit make my decisions.
anyways, once again if you cant read #$%$ OFF A HOLE !!!
I HAVE A FAIRLY MAJOR HOLDING OF SLW because I think it is the best way to own silver and gold... EXCEPT FOR HOLDING THE ACTUAL STUFF. My view of precious metals is that they are a proxy for oil... which in the long run is going to start going up... and up... and up! JUST READ A GOOD ESSAY ABOUT PEAK OIL... the best guess is that we hit true peak oil in 2008... and that by 2030, we will be long past that peak... and very possibly by 2020, we will have begun to get hit by the consequences of peak oil... STEADILY RISING OIL PRICES, AND MASSIVE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THAT!!! The article... published in the Manchester Guardian...THEIR ONLINE NEWS FEED IS VERY GOOD.. basically notes that conventional oil supplies peaked at least 5 years ago, and that non conventional sources have been keeping oil supplies from plummeting... BUT THOSE NON CONVENTIONAL SUPPLIES ARE LIMITED FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS!!! So, from what YOU have said... I would suggest that your girlfriend not only keep her gold fund...BUT ADD SIGNIFICANTLY TO IT IF PRICES KEEP FALLING!!!
I don't know man, shale oil is every where, there is more shale oil in the USA then any other kind of oil, in the middle east, on the planet etc...well maybe ill back that off a bit. All I know is ive seen the shale plays, the maps, and its so much larger the Saudi Arabia, or any where else for that matter.
This leads me to believe that more probably exists else where out side of the USA, These shale plays are incredibly huge and will be drilled full throttle for years to come.
We couldn't find enough experienced help drilling wells, and that demand for help just keeps growing and growing. They cant build new drill rigs fast enough. They cant find enough truck drivers to haul the brine for the wells, there just isn't enough of anything or anybody.
I don't see oil prices going crazy, there's just too much supply right now and not enough pipe line to carry it. I think Warren Buffet is the one standing in the way of the Keystone Pipeline, He owns the rails carrier that carries the oil on his trains, why would he allow pipe lines ?
Warren Buffet got into Obamas head and stopped the keystone pipe line, period.
i Agree with powermountain... Yes there are vast supplies of oil remaining in the ground , but the production cost will relentlessly increase .. Only on the precise timetable can powermountain be argued
Although it may come as a shock, it looks as though oil may soon be in a glut situation particularly if Iran's resources find an unfettered market. The United States is soon to see Mexican oil in addition to the recently found pools domestically.
no kidding. I am beginning to suspect that this gold fund is just a pimple on her #$%$
I heard her mention her real estate portfolio is worth $32M.
Maybe in Ignoring my suggestions to sell long ago, her message to me is "who the #$%$ are you" ?
Israel dropping ordnance on Iran would spike gold. Another terrorist incident either in the USA, or to a close US ally, would also spike gold. ALways have 5-10% of your portfolio hedged with a precious metals proxy of some sort.
If you're a chartist you haven't been helping the last fifty percent PM fall. Reflation is a myth built on printing money, that all wound up drifting to banks, not the real economy. Hiring has been frozen to date based on corporations hoarding cash. The next hit on metals and miners to avoid a crash worse than the fifty percent haircut, is to see if hiring post XMAS actually remains, and unemployment, however #$%$ the McJobs, continues to decline NET of people literally falling off the unemployment roles.
If those recidivist unemployed remain a glut on the market, wage "growth" will not occur in reality, and pressure to raise prices to the employed will remain high, all auguring against PM valuations.
Silver has an industrial edge, but it has fared worse than gold, a 50% versus 40% gold haircut. If Yellen prematurely raises rates by whatever means, tapering bond buying is one of those means (before reflation of real estate, now dissipating from homes under $600K, but still blasting away at those above $750K) CD's will become a real drag on even the stock market advances--that shouldn't happen till end of 2016, but Fed timing has sucked mightily the past last 20 years.
You might recoup some cash by selling covered call options against your shares, you can get some juicy cash for leaps, and invest the rest in high flying equities from GOOG to NFLX. That might help.
I appreciate the serious effort, thank you. Yes this chart shows me nothing but selling and no signals that suggest a trend reversal for any of the miner stocks and none of the PM. Yes Gold is near a double bottom at $1180, The last pop we got towards $1400 two months ago was the time to sell GOLD.
I guess what I am trying to say is, what the FK can I say to her, that I haven't already said?
I have printed out articles for the past 9 months on GOLD.
Mostly bearish, its as if she is just to much pride and ego because she didn't sell the top, shes some how frozen into thinking that some miracle will occur and drive it back up.
I have No Idea what she thinks or why, Again I am saying Its hard to sell here because all of these miners have been slaughetered. And you know how wall street works, reversals can happen for NO logical reason, direction can happen "just because" somebody wants it to, and that isn't us.
I agree, all the indicators have been bearish for PM and miners for at least 12 months. and have only gotten worse.
She was so proud of herself to have bought GOLD 15 years ago, only to now realize its the miners she owns.
Anyways, I do trade another account she has and making her 50-100% annually is not that hard, I am not a buy and hold guy and so far since trading this certain account Ive gained 60% for her in just 4 months, but this is just a fraction of what she has in other funds that are eroding her over all performance.
Yes, this is all 401k Roth IRA stuff.
She is the kind of person that puts ,most of her money into tax havens and real estate, she keeps very little cash on hand. Im just guessing she makes such a great income in her practice and in her investments that she doesn't care about losing in her gold fund.
Anyways, thanks for your help.
The charts are all broken as you all already know.