Jan 13 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Dec - +$44.0B +$44.0B -$1.2B -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales Dec - -0.3% 0.0% 0.7% -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Dec - -0.1% 0.4% 0.4% -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Dec - NA NA 0.1% -
Jan 14 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Dec - NA NA 0.0% -
Jan 14 10:00 AM Business Inventories Nov - 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% -
Jan 15 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/11 - NA NA 2.6% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM PPI Dec - 0.2% 0.3% -0.1% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Core PPI Dec - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Jan 15 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Jan - 4.0 3.5 1.0 -
Jan 15 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/11 - NA NA -2.675M -
Jan 15 2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book Jan - - - - -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/11 - 335K 333K 330K -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/04 - 2875K 2835K 2865K -
Jan 16 8:30 AM CPI Dec - 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% -
Jan 16 8:30 AM Core CPI Dec - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Jan 16 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov - NA NA $35.4B -
Jan 16 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Jan - 8.0 8.0 6.4 7.0
Jan 16 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Jan - 57 57 58 -
Jan 16 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/11 - NA NA -157 bcf -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Housing Starts Dec - 945K 986K 1091K -
Jan 17 8:30 AM Building Permits Dec - 1000K 1000K 1007K -
Jan 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Dec - 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% -
Jan 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Dec - 79.1% 79.1% 79.0% -
Jan 17 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Jan - 81.5 83.0 82.5 -
Jan 17 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Nov - NA NA 3.925M -
Don't look too hard at the housing starts, they came into being up to couple months ago, look to Building Permits, which is one step east of current day, so is more relevant to see if housing is "recovering". Capacity utilization is still WAY under full steam ahead, that is a bellweather for the real economy, and it's Silent as those Lambs, Clarice. JOLTS is an entire season behind, that number won't matter as it reflects hiring openings BEFORE XMAS. It is on my who cares list, I am more worried about after XMAS.
And tomorrow's option expiration. Are we having fun yet?
So Hitler was dead, and his economic guy went to jail
.But what about the economic ideas that the two would implement together? What happened to them?
But when Schacht and his surviving comrades survey the world today, they must feel consoled. Intellectually Schachtism has conquered Europe. The system of price control, wage control, profit control, interest control, exchange control, foreign-trade control, bilateral treaties, rations, priorities, allocations, quotas, with a special license required for almost every more, and with a mounting currency inflation hidden and repressed by these devices – this is Schachtism. And this is the system which nearly every country in Europe has now embraced.”
So the ideas did not die, nor were they confined to a jail cell. Each and every one of those ideas, were not only embraced by Europe, but by the U.S. as well!
Hitler’s foreign policy aspirations may have been defeated by the war. However, the same cannot be said about his economic policies. Those ideas would be embraced and implemented by the victors of the war!
More than any other system of ideas, it is Fascism that should be #1 on the Libertarian priority list to debunk and persist against. The governing elites are well aware that even they can’t sustain themselves under a system of Communism. However they do believe that Fascism is their golden idea
Is Dec one step back, that the GDP 4% growth rate of second quarter is the economy evidencing it doesn't need QE, and is inflation heating up if the bulk of the pop in core inflation is tobacco? Is the housing market a function of the speed of turnover, which was a magnificent number this morning, or, is it also a function of price and interest rates, with interest rates up one hundred basis points and housing prices off 5% the peak of August? Prices are now circa April 2004, that's a mean regression to the mean plus about 30% light. Well today the market gave the whole mishigass about a grade of B minus, and the general market was off to the races, so none of that bodes well for the currency side of silver, down to under $20 an ounce. Housing gets a wringing out at 10--look for a lot of volatility, as if you didn't figure that out already.
Jan16 claims takes center stage, continuing may show a slide with the discontinuance of so many on the dole due to Congress eating its own tail again that issue. Core CPI should head up point 4, not point 2 percent if tobacco shows up again. GLTA
The Beige Book, which the Fed publishes inexplicably 8 times a year, happens at 2PM today. This is where the economists attempt to answer math questions with an essay. It most likely will say, have to wait for hiring numbers to reflect the unemployed that occurred when XMAS part timers hit the streets, so see you next month, which puts the Fed, if they have to rely on this drivel, in a quandary 28-9 Jan when they meet. Some of the hawks are chicken these days, reluctant to pound nails into the stock market balloon, as we are in Wiley Coyote land, over the abyss, legs pumping frantically. It would not surprise me if this entire year we show a 24% pop in the general market, and slow down the taper going into the real estate buying season, #$%$ has already wafted out of the "lofty" August 2004 prices we are "enjoying" TEN YEARS later--now back to about April 2004 pricing.
If the general market is a bubble, and SLW follows course of the general market, we could see a real blood bath. If the application of tapering is like squeezing the market's head in a vise, as Lacker turned coat to address (he's the new bond Chicken Hawk, emphasis on the chicken part), this could get nasty a lot faster than fruitful for longs in ANYTHING.
See how that works?
PPI came in at .4% for December and 1.3-1.4% for the year, and most of the Dec pop was in that quintessential core product TOBACCO, stupid things like food and fuel and clothing and shelter excluded. PPI CPI official numbers are meant to quiet the same mob that thought Alt A loans were just ducky to shove in bunches off to trusting Eurine-pee-ons, helping bankrupt the world, and themselves, as they actually believed the self delusion they foisted on an unsuspecting world. Word has it, those cancerous holdings are still off the bankbooks.
But having been sufficiently mollified by the goyim in charge that not only is the destruction of your money a good thing, called inflation, we haven't punched a 2% hole in the value of money this year, paying you back meager "interest" at less than 1%, which means, you have to use principal to live. This is nada for the Fed group that views math as an essay test, and explain that two and two equals three with straight faces as if they actually know what they are talking about. And those who follow this drivel, create self fulfilling prophesies in the same market that brought to you gambling houses that used to be banks.
Silver is off one percent this morning 15 Jan pre market.
Smoke 'em if you can, afford 'em.
It's Tuesday 15 January, do you know where your idiotic Fed mishigas is? Aside from retail reports, you know the real economy, expected a jolting surprise this shortened XMAS season when reported out 0830 15 Jan--guess who, the Fed's Plosser and Fisher, one dove one hawk on bond buying, get to roil the waters with palaver about extracting the dirty rag called bond buying, from the sucking chest wound called an economy. One will say go slow, the other will say go fast, and your money will slip through your fingers like beach sand on a hot day. Silver is off 2/3rd% already. No wonder, the mere mention of the T word, whether soft or hard, sends long stock buyers scurrying and inflames shorts.
They're talking bounce to today's market, unless numbers reflect a good XMAS, and the market ignores the Fed pulling defeat from the jaws of at least apparent, if not real victory, --I don't see calm prevailing heret. Still the pundits I read expect a "quiet week". HOW? The only ray of sunshine has been easy money, housing prices continue to fall in the wake of TALKING tightening, let alone real tightening with respect to bond buying. Say hello to May 2004--that's the value of housing, and it's off 5% since the taper announcement, let alone actual bond buying reduction.
In her confirmation hearing, Yellen called interest rates and bond buying blunt instruments. In English, the Fed is a one note samba. Big corporations, hoarding cash, are reluctant to spend any--unless it avoids higher borrowing rates and they see expansion. How many $1500 washer dryers can Micky D workers buy that would justify business expansion? Smaller shops just don't have the sauce to expand, let alone reason.
It's hard for most of newly hired America to care, they're too busy flipping burgers and working 24 hours a week. GLWT.
Retail numbers surprised, and the market regained all lost the day before. Now PPI and CPI remain low, the economy will appear to be improving but no need to pop irates in your face, just stealthily let mortgage rates climb by going out of the bond buying business. US buying 40% of the bonds is no small lessening of demand, we're talking 7% mortgage rates. In the meantime, if you have a libor ancient interest only mortgage, which hasn't budged based on a six month rate that is continually sinking, you're still paying 2.75%. That's a LOT less than the 4.5% offered of late, almost half. If US rates went to 6.75 and libor followed, it would take two years for them to catch up.
Sometimes the magic works, and sometimes it doesn't.
Inflation, Strangely Low, Holds Key to 2014 Fed Policy
Stubbornly weak inflation is shaping up as the wild card for U.S. monetary policy makers this year, with top Federal Reserve officials stumped by why it has lingered so low for so long and at odds as to what to do about it.
By last month, policy makers had grown confident enough in the job market to dial back on the program. Figures released Friday showed the jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 6.7 percent in December, despite the smallest monthly job gains in three years. With much of the hiring slowdown attributed to bad weather, however, many analysts say the Fed will stay on track with plans to end bond buying by late this year.
But there is a hitch: inflation has been drifting down for much of the last two years, measuring a feeble 1.1 percent in November by the Fed's preferred gauge.
The longer it lingers well below Fed's 2-percent goal, the more at least a few policy makers worry it is a sign that the recovery might not be as strong as it looks. In theory, inflation should rise as the job market heals.
First of all, the unemployment numbers, as you already know, are #$%$. If you also add in the discouraged workers who are no longer looking, you're staring at a double-digit unemployment rate. This isn't rocket science. But the Fed is scared stiff of deflation---and rightfully so. ,,,,,, doubt they measure inflation correctly or maybe the do and just lie about it.
Today was supposed to be quiet, but the street is anticipating a #$%$ fourth quarter, especially retail, and the Fed choking off the recovery at exactly the wrong moment, ie tapering bond buying. Even has Lacker, a hawk on interest rates sweating.
Something tells me if the Fed doesn't step up there will be more blood on the streets. MREITS are taking off in the likelihood that tapering will, well, be tapered.
The Fed may not have a choice. The velocity of money is so slow they can't get enough out of the banks in good loans to make a difference and the banks are not likely to get bailed out if they go the bad loan route again. If they start bailing in depositors one would think money would flee the banks, into cash, PMs, and real property. No wonder corporations don't want to bring cash back into this country. A lot of people will stay in stocks as the lessor of the evils as people may already fear to put cash into banks. PMs may not be available to the general public in the volume they would require, has to put upward pressure on PM prices .
The only quiet day is Monday, every gambit in the economic world gets a report. I expect huge volatility all week long, for the week past proved tapering premature by years. Unemployment drops to 6.7% because--massive numbers of folks have just given up, and Walmart and Micky D's can hire only so many.
So why did the little guy stocks do better than the Dow and S and P? They're the real driver of the economy, and they need low cost business loans, and that means keeping irates low, and that means--we could see tapering the taper sooner than later.
Another 2% got lopped off homes this past week, up to now 6% off the high. Will anybody get the message?
Can you hear me Yellen at the top of my lungs?
Looks like Lacker on the Fed board, with his hawkish normal stance reluctant to #$%$ the stock market bubble (in his mumbling opinion) tells the tale of a Fed with its hands tied.
Good. Too bad Dexter can't put this jerk on his table.