You can't ignore the range bound action since Dec to now, with that range being $18.90 to $20.40 on silver March contract..
What's been very interesting observing is while silver has stayed in that range since Dec, Silver Standard has gained 33%; PAAS 25% and SLW 10%. SLW's attractiveness has suffered compared to the other big two and unfortunately I haven't read press releases in more than a year to understand why but who cares the price tells you all you need to know.
The 100 hr trend is bullish for silver. The 24 Hr trend is bearish for silver and is currently in charge until the re-assertion of the larger trend.
Bears remain in control as long as silver's price does not have a close above $20.216 for 5 mins. As long as it follows this rule it goes to $19.59 March contract with 75% confidence.
Bulls gain the upper hand with a 5 mins close above $20.389, in which case shorts cover. Bulls add to their position with a close for 5 mins above $20.639 The bullish position dies with a 5 min close below $19.673.
You'd think with the controls India placed on gold, while leaving silver alone, silver's significant accumulation by the Indians would have jettisoned it passed the typical correlation it has with Gold. The Gold:Silver ratio is bullish and holding since august suggesting silvers gains will outstrip gold's for this next leg up going from 61 to 55. We'll see what happens' the problem is if watching the miners SSRI and PAAS as indicators, they've reached close to overbought levels. The pair trade of being short the metal, long the miners is likely in place or short metal long XAU.