My schizo life aside, I step in for nom de plume YDM and issue a serious pronouncement. In the land of voodoo indicators. for January to signal an up year to come, it has to end up for the month. We're eeking out a win in the general market, but don't worry, 28-9 the last Bernookie meeting, and he'll do an off the Broadway that gives Yellen a chance to taper the taper. New home sales are falling off a cliff, and prices are now six percent "peak" prices back to March 2004--that's ten years of no appreciation, whether real, or fabricated by reducing the value of the dollar. Now's not the time to be strengthening the dollar and buying cheap Chinese junk--but there are too many that can't even do that on 25K Micky D salaries, here in Walmart nation. I don't think the market is going to look at this week's figures below and scream "recovery".
It's not quite Code Blue, unless you're disappointing in retail like poor BBY did, and got eaten alive with 50% haircut, oooff, for being off teenths (and looking like it is narrowing profit margins forever). So GLWT.
Silver and SLW depend on continued inflationary forces and a decent economy. Economy is blah, and inflation is, well, officially deflation, even tho we all know that is a sham. Nobody is willing to call the official bluffs--and if they do, the good stocks and hedges will take a beating just as the bad ones will.
I'm more sanguine than ever.
Jan 22 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/18 - NA NA 11.9% -
Jan 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/11 - NA NA 3030K -
Jan 23 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/18 - 330K 327K 326K -
Jan 23 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/11 - 2900K 2900K 3030K -
Jan 23 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Nov - NA NA 0.5% -
Jan 23 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Dec - 4.87M 4.90M 4.90M -
Jan 23 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Dec - 0.1% 0.2% 0.8% -
Jan 23 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/18 - NA NA -287 bcf -
Jan 23 11:00 AM Crude Inventories 01/18 - NA NA -7.658M
Wasn't that fun, watching the entire world crumble because the US Fed hasn't the "confidence" to "invest" in the US bond market, why should anyone hold equities?
That was the first 3% off the top, on the way to the next 17-22%. Some #$%$ figures reflecting the Dec blahs and dull predictions, and then FEDs going to throw more gasoline on that fire 29 January with more tapering.
Today 24 Jan we get a respite from general economic news reporting, other than declines worldwide in me too step with yesterday's selloff. In Rocketship XM, the 1950 scifi quickie, the return trip from a nuclear torn Mars is marred by chief scientist's revelation (Osa Mason) to new hunk boyfriend (played by Lloyd Bridges) that they don't have enough fuel to land due to her miscalculation, and they'll crash and burn on earth. Lloyd frantically replies "but the engines are working perfectly!". She rejoinders, "yes, but at 1/10th capacity".
What a perfect metaphor for the economy, the miscalculation of ending bond buying, and the inevitable crash and burn!. The market is struggling to go higher, waiting for a Fed to save the day by adding more fuel stimulus, and the fuel tank is not only empty of new jobs beyond Micky D level part timers, it's tapering off what little bond fuel remains to keep mortgage rates low, and turning on the Obunglecare drain at breakneck speed, at the worst time. If you don't think we're headed for a crash, wait till a few more blah corporate reports and bleak futures depicted at CC's, and a suffocated real estate buying season after a few looky loos get the message and buy the house they've put off.
Home sales were off in Dec just a smidge, but at what price? 6% lower than peak prices 8 weeks ago--but you wouldn't know that, November prices are all that is being talked to. Wait till the lowered home price fiasco hits the reporting fan late Feb.
In the meantime, yesterday safe havens were gold, silver, and MREITS offering 10% or better, like NLY and CYS. MREITS may take a hit on the lower spread between short term and long term rates, but it's hard to argue they haven't been "discovered" by rank and file, and jumped nearly 3%.
But today reporting takes a break. So am I.
This is a very intelligent thread.
The average Joe should read it.....three times!
But, after reading it, we ask, "how the heck did we get to where we are"? With DOW and most indexes at all time highs? But labor participation at all time lows.
And Joe's aunt, uncle and every member of his AA group has a 55 inch TV, purchased on their Visa card.
How'd they get the TV? How'd they get the credit? How'd they pay each month's bill?
They learned how from a reality TV show.
And everyone applying for UE benefits or food "stamps" does it from their dumb phone. Who pays for that?
We got 3 more years of gimme shelter, and then if the former first lady takes the helm, another 8.
What me worry?
Sharkey right now 2015 it's Cristie versus Clinton, and this has been a cash oriented XMAS, not plastic. Mastercard and Visa are in for a shock. Wonder how many 1-5% cash back cards are paid off every month, with profits being Chased back for those cards and offerers? I know I put $35 grand on the cards, and get a $550 check back every year thank you very much.
In the meantime gold and silver are at the top of their ranges, and markets are finding little excuse to go positive in 2014.
What's in your wallet?
Claims, it gets muddy here. The XMAS hires are on the street but we're talking CONTINUING claims, which may or may not have the recently unemployment group tossed into the street. Amazing how we look when we no longer count those who are unemployed longer than, what is it now, 77 weeks? And that housing PRICE index is going to fall because interest rates have spike one percent, however low historically, they're still TWENTY FIVE PER CENT HIGHER than May 2013, and housing prices go DOWN when mortgage rates go up. When you're espousing not buying the ten year in as much quantity, with another pounding on the nail up against the market balloon, you get bobbles that precede the crash. And Bernookie and the banksters get another chance to whack away at the pin on the market balloon 28-9 Jan.
So here's another chance for everyone to hear how bad December was just after market opening, leading indicators will trigger some kind of pullback.
With any luck without indicators Friday, we'll snap back. And to be truthful, NFLX's 20% pop will be something extraordinary in our market place--it will show this is a market of stocks, not a stock market.
I guess if you have to invest these days, you need to put away the dart board, and have to look.
All I got for my trouble is this lousy T shirt that says mortgage index, good luck with anything to do with housing as rates now are 4.5%, and crippling that recovery. Yes it's historically low, but it's also historically lowball to call 4.2M new "workers" with Micky D jobs a "recovery". Those guys are underwater buying homes at 3.5%, this doesn't bode well for all that "pent up demand" more busy buying cars than homes for the immediate future, and coming buying season. Maybe the NE corridor under a blanket of snow won't have to think about it very much today, Dow futures are off a smidge but, the S and P and Nasdreck are chugging along with small gains. Wish I could say that for silver, we're headed for the next visitation to the trough of the $19-$23 range. Are you riding that roller coaster, or hoping after five years deflation won't continue, at least, officially, no matter what the price increases that exist here in the real economy?
At least cars don't wiggle "appreciation" at you, the scam of the last 50 years, and after forty years of struggling with emissions and performance, we're getting 300HP from 2.0 liters turbocharged getting 30 MPG. Pretty soon the next bleat out of the Muddle East we can confidently resolve under a mushroom cloud, and oil wise, not feel it at all, while we zoom zoom into the sunset in our new cars. Since we're the largest oil exporter these days, it's good to be king and we'd be smart to follow that road, and not conduct ourselves by fighting fist fights in Flablungastan for decades for no reason.
Good luck with all, of that.
Week to week mortgage apps tell a limited story, the big story is how much apps are down versus May '13 when tapering was just a barrage of ill timed verbiage. Sure, mortgage applications increased 4.7 percent from last week earlier weekly (mortgage apps surveyed for the week ending January 17, 2014?. And refinance Index increased 10 percent from the previous week. But the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. AND average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ($417,000 or less) decreased to 4.57 percent, LOWEST level since November 2013, from 4.66 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.33 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV. BUTm the refinance index however up a little over the last two weeks, is DOWN down 67% from early May just before Bernookie played the tapering card.
With the mortgage rate increases, refinance activity will be significantly lower in 2014 than in 2013.
AND 4-week average of the purchase index is now down about 9% from a year ago.
And the report itself? Indicates more drag on the real estate recovery. For those wistfully looking at those October prices, they've chewed 5% off the top of the "peak" recovery, dragging reflation back into deflation that nobody's mentioned except yours truly.
There's always that five year pent up "demand" living in Mom's basement, late to the unemployment line, or Micky D's for one of those high paying jobs the administration "created".
That's why it remains a fundamentally driven market, for the first time in five years. With a pin stuck in the balloon of market valuations, being driven harder one 10 million bond buying tapering at a time.
For that next chair to be withdrawn from the game of musical chairs, watch for it 28-9 Jan FOMC meeting next.
...not much general economic action in the US, but Asia took off, general futures seem to be springboarding off Chinese growth that is approaching 8%, a number we in the US would kill for.--and did--it was called WWII, the last one we won, not counting the 70 year mess called Korea.
Silver is off 2/3% in the wee hours, I maintain a $20-$23 trading range for those who like that game. It's been a long while since I touted selling covered calls against SLW, I haven't changed my feeling there, you can always ying and yang using those call options to gather profit if your guess at today's buy isn't timely. Certainly, by now, the opportunity to see SLW burst upward has slipped your consciousness by now.
Inflation abounds, it's just not being reported. It's about 6% a year in the retail market, smaller sized packaging deceives, but those $16.95 Costco shirts are approaching $20 in the past three years, do the math.
And economics is a math test. Submitting essays for failing numbers for "extra credit" is financial analysts and Congress' way to keep the public fooled.
And yes, in spite of the "Who's" admonition, they get fooled every time.
The reasons people aren't afraid.
They're buying retail Chinese junk again, but using cash, so as to be frugal, and not become a "Target" for credit card fraud.
They're buying cars instead of houses. Might as well get something you know declines.
They believe the tripe about employment, including thinking Micky D part time jobs are "well paying". You have to come from a Chicago slum to believe that. It's positively Presidential.
They think printing trillions to give banksters more profit rights the real economy slowly. Why making banksters richer while the rest of the serfs slave away at Micky D's harbors success is baffling.
Even the Fed believes its own lies. Mortgage loans however, are dissipating, banksters are letting refi divisions hit the unemployment lines, home sales after a flurry of looky loos late to the refi party last summer went away, and home prices continue to shrink, now $5,000 per $100,000 off the top, since May. But don't worry, nobody's "looking".
See how that works?
First five trading days of the market this year indicate 2014 is a down year. You can have your January finish if you want, with heck to pay in different months averaging it out. If Jan ends up, sell high!
SLW is a different story. Something is holding this back as I can never have enough shares here and EGO. Perhaps people are confused as to how streaming model produces such wonderful revenue. They need an earnings report to show people what time it is!
Say hi to YDM for me.
Yo Greenie! There's too much structure responding to the gullibility of Americans to give it all the respect of conspiracy, which requires intelligence, planning, and an endgame. I'll admit the presence of paper ETF draining the demand from hard tack silver, outside of miners which have validity being part of the structure of precious metals, looks like a conspiracy, but it is just opportunism as explainable as Madoff.
I will admit that the system, ie the banksters, didn't have to create, just take advantage of the demand drain built on paper specie--but that is like catching a passing train, the "conspirators" don't have to build the railroad to take a ride on the Reading and collect more than $200 when they pass GO. Toss in a little expertise in the artificial intelligence arena, and you have computers doing all the killing of the entire market. See how that works?
The endgame may be more hard to believe, the same degradation of the value of silver. We're range bound 20-23 bucks, and you can make a living trading, or selling covered calls against your position, but the days of $44 silver is out of the question for the next five or so years.
Especially if the Fed runs its course raising interest rates by back door via tapering, which has already put a 6% crimp in the real estate pricing, making suckers of everyone who bought this past winter, and setting up the next winters downturn. We may get some looky loos off the shelf for the Spring, who think irates are going higher, but it will be at the price of the real estate, as it always is, until we reach critical mass and the whole thing collapses Best Buy style.
See how that works? I hate to see how that works. But it does.