New home sales in Dec should be flat, but at what price, so that 9AM Monday price report should show the beginnings of a 6% roll back zillow has been showing for two months. Follow that dismal report with a Fed hell bent on wrecking the real estate reflation "victory" that got us all the way back to August 2004 prices, now April 2004, and you'll see why tapering is 3 years premature. Can you hear me Yellen yet?
Big bugaboo in the room is the next tapering announcement 29 Jan by Fed's FOMC at the mouth, Bernookie's last day on the podium before he hits the street. Right on the FOMC heels you got claims to reflect all those seasonal workers hitting the streets that mar the jobs "recovery" that's mostly mythological.
Silver is already come off the bottom it's $19-$23 range. Nothing like a trade to make your day.
See if that works.
Jan 27 10:00 AM New Home Sales Dec - NA NA 464K -
Jan 28 8:30 AM Durable Orders Dec - NA NA 3.4% 3.5%
Jan 28 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Dec - NA NA 1.2% -
Jan 28 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Nov - NA NA 13.6% -
Jan 28 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Jan - NA NA 78.1 -
Jan 29 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 01/25 - NA NA 4.7% -
Jan 29 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 01/25 - NA NA 0.990M -
Jan 29 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Jan - NA NA 0.25% -
Jan 30 8:30 AM Initial Claims 01/25 - NA NA 326K -
Jan 30 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/18 - NA NA 3056K -
Jan 30 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q4 - NA NA 4.1% -
Jan 30 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q4 - NA NA 2.0% -
Jan 30 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Dec - NA NA 0.2% -
Jan 30 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 01/25 - NA NA -107 bcf -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Personal Income Dec - NA NA 0.2% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Personal Spending Dec - NA NA 0.5% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Dec - NA NA 0.1% -
Jan 31 8:30 AM Employment Cost Index Q4 - NA NA 0.4% -
Jan 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Jan - NA NA 60.8 59.1
Jan 31 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Jan - NA NA 80.4
.. and the vote is in, the huge uptick in new homes last year, best since 2008 is ruled great news for the past, but the Dec figures, off ten percent, harbor a future burdened by higher mortgage rates. So the markets tumble on what appears to be, the rollover I touted.
Worse, appl proves to be less than spectacular, and the market punishes accordingly, off a whopping ten percent after hours. While the Dow and S and P futures indicate a bounce wee hours, the NASDRECK is looking for another 1% selloff, even before we get the Case Shiller "it ain't worth that much anymore" housing price report pre market, and confidence levels for the 10AM EST time. I wonder how all those Kmart, Walmart, Micky D part timers are feeling these days? Pretty flush at $25K a year? Or was it hard to hear them complain on the food stamp line? Does $25K include the costs for Obunglecare?
Wednesday the Fed will cheerfully announce another spike in the market balloon it so painstakingly built up over five years.
Australian law provides for gold confiscation -- and it's not unique
Writing on Sunday night for The Market Oracle, Paul Behan notes that a mechanism for government confiscation of privately held gold is already explicitly part of the law in Australia. Behan's commentary is headlined "Gold and Silver Confiscation? It's Written In the Law".
Six years ago the Perth Mint's Bron Suchecki noted as much at his Internet site, Gold Chat, but elaborated in detail about the law's nuances and the political circumstances likely to bear on any attempt to implement it. Suchecki commented astutely that any confiscation of gold by government probably would manifest itself as nationalization of mines, the sources of large amounts of gold, long before it got around to privately held metal. Suchecki's commentary was headlined "Australian Gold Confiscation".
With some difficulty seven years ago GATA extracted an answer on the point from the U.S. Treasury Department, which replied that the U.S. government, upon proclamation of an emergency by the president, claims the power provided by statutes enacted in 1917 and 1977 to confiscate from the people not just gold and silver but any damn thing the government feels like confiscating.
Since most U.S. citizens can't even spell gold and fewer still own it, such confiscation probably would not accomplish much, and certainly the rationale for the U.S. government's trying to confiscate gold as it did in 1933 evaporated long ago, gold then being a huge part of the country's official money stock and today constituting none of it.
New Home sales starts the ball rolling in the uh, oh, category followed by tomorrow's "at what price" response. How many looky loos are getting off the fence?
This morning, welcome to the dead cat bounce in the markets. Touting bond tapering as "known" is like making yourself feel good because you have a final diagnosis of terminal cancer. Happy yet?
Silver is the canary in the mine. Yellow is turning blue this morning, as I see red there.
It's a rainbow coalition the administration is orchestrating.
New home sales at the 4.5% mortgage rate in December, a soft month, we get to see how the govt fudges that number as the only indicator today. Higher interest rates means less folks can afford homes unless prices fall for those homes, the Fed is pulling out of the bond buying market and crashing the entire world. Will the world with whatever it has left pull their money out of the market and invest in US bonds? Some of that will occur, but not enough imho to prevent a 15-20% washout of a market that hasn't really healed from the bubble of 2007 MENTALLY. Homes are still retreating in value from their "peak" recovery to August 2004 prices to make up the difference between 3.25 % rates and today's 4.5%.
Are there enough looky loos coming off the shelf to buy homes this December to give the market a pop today? And if so, is the Fed's next tapering decision a couple days from now still hanging like a sword over the heads of longs in anything?
Long buyers are retreating to MREITS like CYS and NLY in droves last week. They'd rather take chances on a sector already beaten down 50% and still paying 10-15% interest. I'm buying on dips and already own a bunch.
For the record? Other places, even those with good corporate reports, are retreating. GLTA.
Home sales hit 7-year high as prices also climb
The pace of existing-home sales rose in December, pushing 2013’s tally to the highest level in seven years as an improving economy and pent-up demand boosted results, according to data released Thursday.
After falling for three months, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales rose 1% in December to 4.87 million, the National Association of Realtors reported. Meanwhile, for all of 2013 sales hit 5.09 million, the most since 2006, and up 9.1% from the prior year.
“The data are consistent with recent weakening in sales having run its course, although evidence of a clear uptrend again is still lacking,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.
YOY yes, month to month over October Nov no. Selling at what price? Prices and declines since the taper aren't cranked in yet, and the same articles point to the Dec downturn in volume compared to previous months. Many ignoring the cancer. But the market isn't.