General market looking rolling over? Dow, S and P, Nasdreck, plotzed, S and P 3.6%. So this week's hand grenades are a bucket full. Manufacturing blistered so last year, who thinks that inventory will continue to carry a market where all that stuff gathers dust? Construction spending down Dec? Excuse: Baby it's cold outside. Auto sales a nice upside surprise, that's replacing homes strangled by tapering, unless we wrestle 3rd world into picking up the $10B slack. But Thursday claims and Friday unemployment rates, so last month with all those XMAS hires hitting the streets, are up for grand finale Thursday Friday. Place your bets.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Feb 3 10:00 AM ISM Index Jan - 57.0 56.0 56.5 57.0
Feb 3 10:00 AM Construction Spending Dec - -1.0% 0.1% 1.0% -
Feb 3 2:00 PM Auto Sales Jan - NA NA 5.3M -
Feb 3 2:00 PM Truck Sales Jan - NA NA 6.6M -
Feb 4 10:00 AM Factory Orders Dec - -2.0% -1.7% 1.8% -
Feb 5 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/01 - NA NA -0.2% -
Feb 5 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Jan - 175K 178K 238K -
Feb 5 10:00 AM ISM Services Jan - 53.5 53.8 53.0 -
Feb 5 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/01 - NA NA 6.421M -
Feb 6 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Jan - NA NA -5.9% -
Feb 6 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/01 - 330K 335K 348K -
Feb 6 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 01/25 - 3000K 2993K 2991K -
Feb 6 8:30 AM Trade Balance Dec - -$37.0B -$36.0B -$34.3B -
Feb 6 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q4 - 2.5% 2.4% 3.0% -
Feb 6 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs Q4 - 0.0% -0.5% -1.4% -
Feb 6 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/01 - NA NA -230 bcf -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Jan - 150K 175K 74K -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jan - 160K 161K 87K -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Jan - 6.5% 6.7% 6.7% -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Jan - 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -
Feb 7 8:30 AM Average Workweek Jan - 34.5 34.4 34.4 -
Feb 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Dec - $10.0B $11.5B $12.3B
Will anyone check the "quality" of the job growth in Non Farm Payrolls? And, if inventory wasn't being built in January, can you expect much hiring for the same period, or more layoffs than jobs created? That's why I think no matter what ADP showed earlier this week, the Non Farm Payrolls will be better than the dismal 70K of winter, but if better than dismal is what propels a market, we are in bubble territory, now that the Fed has manifested the appearance, it is pulling the floor out from under equities by tapering bond buying. The market doesn't know which way to go, and there's an element that swings from stocks to bonds and back like a rabbit trapped between two snakes. I see it in high yield--jumps when the market swoons, unwinds when the equities recover like clockwork. Talk about a pair trade.
I know I sound negative a lot, but there's real negative, and whether the numbers are stoked to create an illusion of prosperity to the delight of traders only, investors take the hindmost. The millstone of Obamacare hangs around full time job creation, and even the altruistic would have to create part time positions to be competitive for the few dollars left the dwindling middle class. You don't have trouble with the poor spending money, basic food, used clothing, and dismal shelter is all they can afford.
Silver is off a half percent in the wee hours after two days of popping. 0830 EST we get to see the whether the market is into pop, or drop.
What incentive was there to hire in January, if ISM hit the toilet? That's an awful lot of service jobs that have to make up the difference, and a sudden change in the five year penchant to hoard profits and not hire, at least not hire here in the US.
Welcome to the royal crapshoot, and Ben's farewell means for the near term, no finger on the roulette wheel.
Well, jobless claims compared to last reporting period aren't down enough to warrant statistical inference, but the general market looks to open higher at the bell wiping out yesterday's losses on that hopey changey thingey. Fat chance, as productivity soars to 3.2% as terrified workers "serf" the working place at stagnant salaries. The pundits are talking to the cold weather as an excuse, anything but remind the market the Fed is no longer holding it up.
The only way we have low interest rates going into the home retail buying season is, if foreigners decide to buy bonds because they're still reeling from all that bad paper they bought a decade ago, and if the scads of homes still on bank books like a "hidden file" are worthy of sale--there are still scads there, and in private investor hands, whose "flip" looks like a renter in perpetuity.
Tomorrow we see what figures are coked up for NonFarm Payrolls, I think we'll get another slight uptick with a revised downtick for last reporting period.
Silver continues to be safe haven. It used to be reflected in SLW prices at 2X, now barely 1X if at all. The separation between the two has been going on for at least six months.
If you wish to get a true picture of employment, visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics' website titled, "Labor Force Participation Rate"
It has been in a downward trend since 2008. This shows the lie the has been continually broadcast by mass media that give the appearance that employment growth is improving. If charted this would disclose that the bottom portion of the charts is continually being removed to give the appearance of growth.
Of course most here already know this, but there are a number of references to statistics at the beginning of this topic which fail to give the whole picture, unless you visit the BLS website. Failing to provide a broader context is quite misleading.
Analysts are reporting improved job picture anyway, and nobody checks their work, what they invest in, and whether their disclosures are self serving. It reminds me of the real estate Ponzi scheme everybody in the banking system participated in.
This is a scary time to be long in anything.
By the way, Ford and GM upside surprise didn't-- and that gives me even more pause underscoring the bubblicious nature of the market. The general market cat is still dead and bouncing overnight, even furriner markets aren't following the US down overnight, the couple nights a year they don't play follow the leader--but that is the setup for the next round of made up numbers NonFarm payrolls. 160K hired after firing all those part timers for the XMAS rush--and how about the consumer credit drop expected in the wake of the huge 10% decrements in retail buying this past Dec? Thursday in anticipation, and Friday coming, it looks to me like dooby dooby down, oh down, hey down, dooby dooby down...
Wah wah wah wahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, uhhhhhhhhhhhh.
Job cuts and claims in the Thursday AM. I wonder, did they still fail to extend unemployment? If they didn't the starving and other zombies won't make the numbers drill. But, if the numbers improve, it's heads I win, tails you lose, as the floor to the market is being pulled out from under by the Fed's taper--whether really affecting the economy or imagined, the rank and file think the economy is an essay test instead of a math test on this one.
Whoops, today marks the five percent mark for the selloff by the Rustled 2000, total six percent so far.
Ready for the back nine?