Money is trying to break the long miner to short silver trade
Who knows the reason, but silver pulled gold up today and everything else.
Meanwhile, the miner's are rolling over (if you take SSRI as the lead indicator). Money is trying to break this long miner short metal trade and
Silver only needs crack $20.504 or greater on a 5 min close and bulls will have complete control. If this happens I add a few more contracts in the low $20.4x's. If that close on the 5 min happens my next targets are at the $21.00 even level or just slightly before. However, this bear has gone on for so long and to such oversold levels some overshooting to the upside is necessary to balance out the picture.
I know it's early in the month, but silver is putting in a monthly breakout on the chart. Last time this happened was 1 yr ago, and the run was $5.00. Also, weekly chart is putting in signs of a breakout that also reveals previous $5.00 move.
The problem: where it sits in relation to March contract expiry on Feb 22. 30% of the open interest has gone to the back month (May) and with only 70% of the ammunition available in the current month, can silver muster enough to break some key price points. History says no. Typically, there are 2 to 3 fake out's and they will occur next week if this thing can't pop before this Friday.
I only got 2/3's of the contracts I wanted but who's complaining.
This breakout is incredibly strong and I can tell you it telegraphs ( for the young people look it up, it was the first internet..) significantly higher prices. If is really amazing that it happened before end of day today, because next week rollover from march to may would begin to accelerate.
For any target's I had, silver has far exceeded them by about 15 cents, Also I wrote in an earlier post the pit traders were looking at around 1313 in gold, and I had $1318, well the so far high is 1319.60. Yesterday, there were a lot of folks shorting at the CME close, some of them are caught this morning. Poor guys, I know what that feels like.
I'm llooking to selling 1/3 to maybe 1/2 of my position up here and looking to reload some lower..It will be tricky, silver was held back hard while gold and silver miners were rising and you can see what's happening now, it's up 3x to gold's gain The signal to sell will start on a 5 min chart. Every 5 min chart gives way to the dominance of a 15 min, which gives way to hours, then days, then weeks, then months.