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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • sandybeachdave sandybeachdave Feb 19, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    PM price analyses

    For the TA folks, on Safehaven period commercial Iriarte and another author have gold EW analyses that both conclude that the recent run up is a counter move in a continuing downtrend. They may be correct, but I have my doubts. There have been constructive changes in TA indicators like MA's getting more in sync and trendin/turning up. Cowboy mentioned a while back that EW worked better in an up market. I am a bit conflicted in that Iriarte's analysis would suggest we are in the less accurate down trending market, but the MA's are suggesting we are move toward a trend change. Peter Schiff, the mouthy, arrogant but generally correct if not early with his predictions, was interviewed on USA Watchdog stating that the price trend change is in place. He was evasive about hanging any hard numbers to gold price. I am quite certain the trend is up and it may be violently up with a catalyst so I am keeping my exposure to PM's and PM stocks elevated.

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    • Kitco has an article that discusses the growing appetite for gold and silver by the Japanese as their government has embarked on a plan to debase the Yen. Although a fledgling thing, there are significant signs of a trend. Any evidence that the fiat, and fiat anywhere, is being recognized as a risky scheme raises my hopes that the entire monetary casino will soon close.

    • Thank you so much for posting this bit of info Sandybeachdave. I was hypothesizing about this counter trend move myself a few months ago and then again last week with Sharpie. The reason was some of my larger counts and the recent / current moves have blown right past my price points and that is very very rare. Additionally, a counter trend tends to be more extreme of violent if you will with the price movements. As a side note too, I think that when the market sells off (and I believe it will soon), everything (all stocks) will go down initially. The PM's will probably stop the decline and recover first, but I think that they will also get caught up in the downtrend initially.

      EW is easier to follow for me in an up market. I may be lacking some skills or understanding of the application of EW and fibs in downtrends, but I think it is primarily because as stated above, there seems to be less structure to the downtrend price movements in that they usually have (as mentioned above) more violent less structured movements and fib ratio / price points. Also, ABC patterns and irregular patterns are usually involved in counter trend moves (it's just more difficult to predict in my humble opinion). Those guys you mentioned are probably way more accomplished at reading EW and fibs. They also probably have some really good software to help them.

      Thank you very much again for posting this Sandybeachdave.

 
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