Over the weekend I was thinking that SLW price would decrease as was predicted by the TA folks, but it seems like the Ukraine situation has trumped with the price up quite a bit and holding some of the gains as we enter afternoon trading. That does not mean that the retrace will not occur as we progress through the week. For me this weekend exercise suggests that it is much more risky to be planning for lower SLW prices than for higher prices. I am maintaining my long position, and should the retrace take place, I will add a bit to the holdings. A little kicker will be the dividend roughly at the end of this month.
Fundamentals are reasons to buy stocks, not TA. If you are a day or swing trader, they play more of a role. I do use TA, but only for buy/sell points. I get tired of those guys cluttering up the board here. So much so that I usually post on a board of a stock which I have little investment in because it is better overall. Not much talk, just a news reporting board and looking-for-followers (and should go to Twitter) chartists here?
That being said, silver clearly lagging behind gold and has a lot of catching up to do. That is being reflected in the silver producers versus gold producers today thus far.
Fundamentals don't apply as much to PMs. What metrics are used to value the price of gold/silver? Demand can not be precisely quantified. OK China and India are hoarding gold but they can stop whenever they want to. Corn, oil, NAT GAS, etc. ... YES. SLW can be valued based on the price of gold/silver WRT current contracts and agreements, but since gold/silver can not be easily valued nether can SLW. So I own SLW on the assumption that silver will go up, but what metric indicates silver will go up (Nothing specific except historical price for me ... thusly rudimentary TA)
I think this makes TA more applicable in the short/long term for PMs and miners of PMs. Admittedly, I don't get the I, ii, A, C, III wave stuff though. The only thing that tickls me about the wave talk is when it gets injected into other folks threads.
The one fundamental that I think applies is the cost to mine the stuff. When price gets below the cost to pull it out of the ground it should find some support eventually. That is not to say it has to go down that far, but that this IS a fundamental that I would rely on to back the truck up.
In example. I own CCJ which has a horrible valuation WRT P/E & PEG and near term earnings forecasts, but as a uranium miner, it is going up based on anticipation of increased demand. Supply and demand principles can be applied.