Nasdreck , S and P off 2 and 1.3% respectively last week, now it's time for lousy housing related numbers to crash into the FOMC wanton desire to bring an end to a party over May 2013 when Bernookie was YELLEN, bye bye bonds. Think last week a roller coaster ride? wait till Sunday's Ukraine vote hits Monday's market. Heads I win, tails you lose: voting for Russian annexation runs into problems, voting to stay with the whooping Ukraines, runs into a Russian intervention problems. No wonder Friday last everybody left.
Traders are so jumpy they like silver and gold all over again. Monday afternoon, hits keep coming, housing sags all the way to FOMC decision 19 Mar, ("just kidding about 6.5%")--to more housing ughs 20 Mar. GLTA. Dramamine futures are up.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Mar 17 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Mar - 2.0 5.4 4.5 -
Mar 17 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Jan - NA NA -$45.9B -
Mar 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb - NA NA 78.5% -
Mar 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Feb - -0.1% 0.1% -0.3% -
Mar 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Feb - 78.4% 78.5% 78.5% -
Mar 17 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Mar - 50 50 46 -
Mar 18 8:30 AM Housing Starts Feb - 875K 915K 880K -
Mar 18 8:30 AM Building Permits Feb - 945K 955K 937K -
Mar 18 8:30 AM CPI Feb - 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -
Mar 18 8:30 AM Core CPI Feb - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Mar 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/15 - NA NA -2.1% -
Mar 19 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q4 - -$88.0B -$87.6B -$94.8B -
Mar 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/15 - NA NA 6.180M -
Mar 19 2:00 PM FOMC Rate Decision Mar - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Mar 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/15 - 330K 330K 315K -
Mar 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/08 - 2900K 2883K 2855K -
Mar 20 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Feb - 4.55M 4.60M 4.62M -
Mar 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Mar - 2.0 2.0 -6.3 -
Mar 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Feb - 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% -
Mar 20 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/15 - NA NA -195
Looks like I've earned some red marks--looks like some folks can't handle the truth. I rate the herd, am not happy about what the herd does, there's a difference. Toughen up and make plans accordingly, or suffer failure. Yellen marble mouths walking away from just unemployment numbers, touting what I have been saying all along, the jobs recovery is only menial low paying work, the baby it's cold outside excuse only works if there isn't global warming as a permanent anchor around our necks (it is, ice caps melt, cold water makes for cold extremes followed by warm ones--see how that works?)--and we're about to walk into that old voodoo, go away in May. Unfortunately, after all that marble mouthing, she sets a date in concrete for the raising of overnight rates the lemmings latch onto like doughnuts floating in the river below the cliff they just ran off.
Silver and gold are in secular downtrends because nobody can figure risk off doesn't mean risk's gone away, and silver and gold etf are draining demand for physical and miners--there's just so much paper to go around, and folks are so stupid, they get diverted from physical or miners--they "invest" in silver paper, silver foil, silver words written on gum wrappers, and think they've invested in the real McCoy--these are telling trails that don't lead to $100 silver, which is where it should be, given the penchant to print print print--they lead right where we are, at about 10X the 1974 price. So's everything else by the way, so, why should silver escape?
A tidal wave is not a conspiracy, it's just a deep body of water carrying you to a predestined end, if Maria Ospenskeya was to be believed. Might as well use the old gypsy woman, she helped Bela, and Larry Talbot, and that's better execution than marble mouthed Yellen.
The way is thorny through no fault of your own. Sleep now, and find peace for a time. Silver is up 1% overnight. Holding that rebound, is another issue.
Yup, the Fed looks confused--we're no longer looking at the number 6.5% because that doesn't measure all the "gave up" crowd, but "we're improving" but, uh, we need to look at more data than just unemployment, including wages for those jobs, and inflation is below expectations so, uh, tell you what, we'll START POPPING IRATES 6 MONTHS AFTER WE FINISH THE BOND TAPERING EVENTS...
Summary: We don't know what we're doing, so here's a bunch of mixed signals, you figure it out.
The PM community got it figured out in a hurry. nobody likes that conclusion, and slv is under $20 exactly where all the tea leaf readers and technocrats DON'T need to see it. SLW reported a quarterly so jury rigged, it may mean they've all futures, if you pardon the expression, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Housing starts down, but permits up? Think paper silver? Think PAPER HOUSING--how much investment do you need to get a permit? Somebody is zooming somebody. In the meantime, the risk in the Ukraine is that the US will be impotent to do anything about it--sort of like Munich 1938? Poland, Alsace, especially Alsace, got to protect all those Germans living in France...
Ring a ding bell--oh, I forgot, you didn't have to learn any history, you just got a diploma. Silver drops like a stone, and gold has lost its luster, to the five year old crowd that constitutes the bulk of retail investors, aptly called, dumb money.
Leaves me FOMC at the mouth.
Big "risk off" because the US and Europe are impotent to stop Putin? Sounds like the biggest risk in the world to me, but like most kids, the flashy goes away for the moment, they're distracted. Yellen is expected to keep the fires of inflation burning, long past 6.5% unemployment, because there is another 8 percent out there that have given up or just working part time jobs.
Awful lot of silver and gold selling this PM morning, way overdone, but symptomatic of the lemming crowd. The horn blats, the herd turns, and right into the inflationary cliff so hard to understand for the one syllable word investor crowd. Meanwhile the SEC wakes up to computer trading might be a scam, right after a 150% runup in the market, so they can conclude no harm no foul and get away with it.
Another day in paradise, home building permits are up, but I hope the Chinese are buying. We're tap city in here.
Crimeans voting 95% to go back to Russia, can we get McCain to shut up, and get back to fraudulent business economic statistics, and trash the American market the old fashioned way? UUUUUUUUUUUUUURRN IT!
The big vote on Ukraine future Sunday (Saturday wee hours for those of us in the USA) will tell us which direction the markets go Monday on. If they vote to be annexed by Russia, useless, we have a problem. If they vote to stay with the whooping Ukraines, the Russians haven't a mandate to be in country, we have a problem. Are you seeing the trend here, or did the market Friday not tell you something?
Markets don't like those kinds of problems because traditionally retail investors haven't brains enough to figure out whether natural gas issues that MIGHT happen in the Ukraine have any effect on GOOGLE clicks and ad revenue, they just panic like lemmings and listen to technical weenies that describe what the herd is doing, as if what the herd is doing dictates the herd's next steps through the looking glass--it all becomes self fulfilling dreck as winners are sold along with "losers", and the whole thing collapses like a House of Cards, without Kevin Spacey.
CRIMEA RIVER, CRIMEA RIVER, I CRIED A RIVER OVER YOUuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.
Let's see, with the time difference of about 6 hours later, so the polls should close mid afternoon east coast time, and be tallied by wee hours Monday. I am all aquiver.