Mar 25-28 Economic Calamities: Bad is Good, "Cold" as Scapegoat, Rubberlips Yellen Ain't, Hopefully
After FOMC's Yellen yodeled no more 6.5% unemployment target, economy improving slowly, must watch ALL indicators, but DON'T WORRY, I'M POPPIN IRATES 6 MONTHS POST Tapering!, a confused world (except for 1 happy reporter) sold off stocks, made a stab at recovery Friday, and fell on itsass with half the original pop. Hopefully Yellen won't repeat the "what I meant" error Greenspan uttered 3 times when he made similar gaffs 10 years ago--every time he tried to "explain" all the world heard was "rising interest rates" yes no or maybe, and the market sold off. We have enough bad news economically as we continue that song, baby it was cold outside. Come spring (the real one, with real spring weather, not the snow expected east coast Tuesday!!!) there'd better be a truckload of pent up demand here, or else.
Which means continued low irates, so--bad news, is good for markets! Initial claims double newly created jobs, stocks should sparkle. Silver? Not so much. Tschit.
Mar 25 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Jan - NA NA 13.4% -
Mar 25 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Jan - NA NA 0.8% -
Mar 25 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Mar - NA NA 78.1 -
Mar 25 10:00 AM New Home Sales Feb - NA NA 468K -
Mar 26 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 03/22 - NA NA -1.2% -
Mar 26 8:30 AM Durable Orders Feb - NA NA -1.0% -
Mar 26 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Feb - NA NA -1.1% -
Mar 26 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 03/22 - NA NA 5.850M -
Mar 27 8:30 AM Initial Claims 03/22 - NA NA 320K -
Mar 27 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 03/15 - NA NA 2889K -
Mar 27 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q4 - NA NA 2.4% -
Mar 27 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q4 - NA NA 1.6% -
Mar 27 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Feb - NA NA 0.1% -
Mar 27 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 03/22 - NA NA -48 bcf -
Mar 28 8:30 AM Personal Income Feb - NA NA 0.3% -
Mar 28 8:30 AM Personal Spending Feb - NA NA 0.4% -
Mar 28 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Feb - NA NA 0.1% -
Mar 28 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Mar - NA NA 79
27 March we didn't even BOTHER with popndrop, we just dropped the general market. I am sorry, but betting the miners against the SLV is folly, you just wind up with a boomerang day dragging SLW 4 percent to the downside. If you can't handle the truth, then far be it for me to convince you otherwise.
Claims is down 20K, average down 80K, so silver is off 1/2%--but WAIT! Good news is bad news, that gives Yellen reason to pop irates March 2015 3 years too soon, so the pop PM has receded, and I expect it to falter end of day worse--Whenever Spring comes (looks like mid April,) the looky loo home buyers will be motivated as this is the "last summer" for low irates.
How many $400K homes can Mom and Pop working at Micky D's afford? Stay tuned, in the meantime, silver and gold appear to be heading lower, and the market appears to have rolled over, because the analysts are swarming over "it ain't over till I sold today" renditions of their favorite song "Me first, I don't answer to anybody".
Here we go with home prices this morning and confidence. I am confident the market will be all over the place, as I have been calling rollover for the past three months. Home prices should be stable at just about seven percent LESS than peak October 2013 pricing. Whatever, we'll get baby it's cold outside and a freak east coast wintry mix will give that prognosis credibility. No one has figured that the cold isn't freaky, it's global warming warned in 1974, and permanent, if not going to get worse.
A market that starts strong and sells off is not a strong market. Pukin is being finger wagged by the West, and lead canaries in the mine, like GOOG and NFLX took gutshots yesterday. Is the dead cat made of rubber today?
Where's the "good" news and all those "high paying" jobs? One advantage--the bum smearing my windshield looking for a handout has a Master's Degree. GLWT