This should be all over the place this week, but silver players are starting the week with a hasty retreat. There are no safe havens at these levels. Wade in deep or shallow, leading indicators are positive three months in a row and growing at .8% after baby it's cold outside.
Apr 21 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Mar - 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% -
Apr 22 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Feb - NA NA 0.5% -
Apr 22 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Mar - 4.55M 4.60M 4.60M -
Apr 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 04/19 - NA NA 4.3% -
Apr 23 10:00 AM New Home Sales Mar - 430K 455K 440K -
Apr 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 04/19 - NA NA 10.013M -
Apr 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 04/19 - 315K 312K 304K -
Apr 24 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 04/12 - 2750K 2750K 2739K -
Apr 24 8:30 AM Durable Orders Mar - 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% -
Apr 24 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Mar - 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Apr 24 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 04/19 - NA NA 24 bcf -
Apr 25 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Apr - 81.5 82.6 82.6
Initial claims grew, but continuing claims fell, as people starving to death continued to collect at the bottom of local rivers and sewers, and this morning, Michigan rules the sentiments, as we depict how gloomy we were in the cold. The market is off, earnings are mixed, the excuse for selloff is the Ukraine, everyone has forgotten that with the advent of shell oil, US is a net EXPORTER of petroleum--so expect more vacillation, so get out the Vaseline. Silver is flat after a nice bump yesterday, this is a trader's market and range bound the general market, all the while nudged further both up and down by HFT phantom trades that appear as unconsummated bids and asks, depending on which way the wind blows. Next week all eyes on the Fed as Madam Fed Chairman Yellen Rate Popper the 1st takes center stage.
The last thing we need is a conflicted and confused Fed that can't believe it's own numbers. After being wrong 50% of the time, and being no better than a coin flip, I expect nothing but we'll raise rates being data dependent and our data sucks as the theme of the next two years.
If existing home sales were flat, new home sales were DOWN nearly 15% compared to economic pundit blundering maggots' prognostications, but never fear, claims are here on 24 Apr to drill another hole in the recovery boat, to, as govt will predict, let out the water leaking in from all the other holes drilled in the economy since we went to paper instead of silver and gold backing money. New houses sloughing off should have helped existing homes, which to me is the whole idea, since 20% of America is still under water, but durable goods suffers when nobody is buying $3000 washer dryers, or $3500 flat screens that nobody needs.
I look at zillow, and see a miniscule pop in their guestimates on housing values my neighborhood. Eureeka, we just entered Feb 2004 home prices my neighborhood! That would make my home just a smidge under what I paid for it--my neighbors however, bought their cars with equity loans, so even at 3.75% amortized over 10 years? They've paid 25% the principal-they're just barely able to walk away with ZERO equity after ten years.
And they're more than ready for a new car. Housing not on the market yet? The boomers may be flush with cash who have been in homes prior to the bubble, say, 1997, but the under 50 crowd? They're not ready to sell for at least three to five years, which is why next week Madam Fed Chairman Yellen Rate Popper the 1st will add more economic "intelligence" to the fray, with all the expertise inherit in those that predicted new housing boom this March.
Nobody even said baby it's cold outside. See you this side of claims and durable goods today. Generally, futures in the wee hours are flying in the general market--silver? off 3/4%. Having fun yet?
How bad could things get? I have no idea. Argentina has already confiscated much of its citizens’ retirement plans and forced them to invest in the government’s debt.
Can we say for sure that inflation of this magnitude will or won’t happen in the United States? No. I am neither a prophet nor a soothsayer. Though I can tell you this: the Federal Reserve had been in business for around 100 years and had $800 billion on its balance sheet as recently as 2007. Now it has $4 trillion, which is somewhere between a 400- and 500-year money supply. What will happen if it tries to sell that debt?
The minute the world loses confidence in the dollar or it loses the status of being the world’s reserve currency, the decline in purchasing power could be horrendous