21-5 July Economic Claptrap: Earnings Trump Eco for Daytraders, but Existing Housing Blahs Intrude
Flat housing values last three months tell you all you need to know, the reflation of home prices has stalled, and the only thing keeping new housing bubbling along is the lack of sellers still underwater from the last bubble. But after the sucky winter doldrums in which all the pundits blamed baby it's cold outside, there will be no such excuses for the second quarter nor the summer, for which July looks more like May.
I still hold a core with covered calls sold against, never has that looked so intelligent.
Jul 22 8:30 AM Core CPI Jun - NA NA 0.3% -
Jul 22 8:30 AM CPI Jun - 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% -
Jul 22 8:30 AM Core CPI Jun - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Jul 22 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index May - NA NA 0.0% -
Jul 22 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Jun - 4.95M 5.00M 4.89M -
Jul 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 07/19 - NA NA -3.6% -
Jul 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/19 - NA NA -7.525M -
Jul 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 07/19 - 315K 308K 302K -
Jul 24 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/12 - 2550K 2533K 2507K -
Jul 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Jun - 430K 475K 504K -
Jul 24 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 07/19 - NA NA 107 bcf -
Jul 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders Jun - 0.3% 0.3% -0.9% -1.0%
Jul 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Jun - 0.8% 0.7% 0.0% -0.1%
Worse than I predicted, good, however hoked up, is viewed as bad, and the continuing claims "improvement" and existing home sales is just viewed as another hammer blow on the pin of hiking overnight rates, which the country has more faith in than record profits by anyone. Witness the blood bath of missing estimates by a penny.
Well there's always next week so remember, the it always looks darkest just before it goes black completely.