Whereas I didn't expect slw to keep climbing only, this unrelated 'drop' in price over the last couple of days for no 'real' reason is perplexing. Have i missed something?
Sharpie, Kazan, cowboy, Sandy....pls comment. Thanks
Question for Sami. How come my name isn't capitalized like the other guys...lol. Just kidding. Basically what Sharpie said below. I'm thinking we are in a larger ABC downward correction. Specifically, we are in the larger C portion down. Few possible price points for us to hit downward are 24.98 being the absolute minimum low. 23.38 being another possible point. Lot of different price point potentials right now. We need to wait a bit and see how the pattern going down develops a bit. The key thing right now is that we are heading down to at least the 24.98 level if not lower. I'll post some price points as the pattern develops, but you can look at my prior post and Sharpies for the general price points that we expect like 24.98, 24.75, 24.49, 23.85, 23.38, 22.94, and 21.66. There are a few too many to make a meaningful statement at this juncture though. Also, Sandy's point about the gap fill is a good price point to retrace to also, if there is an EW pattern that correlates the gap fill from Sandy's post and my charts, I would look take a strong interest in that price point. Hope this helps, lot of unknowns at the moment other than to say we should be heading down for a bit anyways.
sami, the EW reason for the retrace is that stocks in an uptrend go up in 5 waves, stocks in a retrace go down in 3 waves, ie A B and C, if the EW count is right we have been going down since the end of the B wave at 26.87. The C wave may end about 24.74. a 38% retrace is about the least to expect after the run up we had to 27.66. If we only get a 38% retrace that indicates SLW is a strong stock, often stock have a 50 or 62 % retrace from a high. Targets for the wave up after this retrace are 27.66 , 29.70 , and 32.34 . . . Cowboy, thinking 27.66 may have been W3, W4 at 24.74 and W5 at 32.34, just an outline . . . . the above prices may be the w i , w iii and w v of the W 5 I expect to run to 32.34, would make for some good trading if that works out. Aug 8th ???
Sharpie, its possible. What would be your price points for Wave I then? Mine are 20.03 - 21.13 for W1 and my max extended wave only shows 25.11 for a 3.62%. So, I don't think it to be the case. That kind of move up that we had from 20.03-27.66 looks to me like a corrective wave ABC type (looking at a 5 year Daily chart - looks like a huge W4 with multiple ABC patterns) or maybe a Medium / Large Wave 1 (impulse wave) of a Larger Wave 3 (which I believe you're thinking) and this is very possible. If that is the case, then I believe we finish this smaller wave 5 of the Medium Wave 3 of the Larger Wave 3 at 40.02, 42.92, 47.65, or higher. I think we will know more by how far it retraces. Good eye though Sharpie on noticing the style / wave 3 pattern characteristics though. Could also be an A or C though too.
There is a gap up overnight June 18 from $23.63 high and the following day low of $23.91. These trading gaps usually get filled and we quite likely will see this gap filled as well. That said, there is pretty strong support from $25 to $26 established late February and early March that may hold as it has for the most part all this month. The next support level is around $22.50 to $23.50 roughly coincident with the gap. If we get to that point, I will be buying short term SLW at the money calls as I would expect the return to $25 - $26 range to be fairly swift.
sandy beach dave, got any suggestions on how to tell the depth of the C wave, 50 and 38 % don't fill the gap and 62% seems too deep. I'll be watching RSI at the end of what I think is the III of C ( 25.50 ??) to see if it increases with price still decreasing, but RSI doen't seem to always work. May sell at 25.50 if things look right and go long for a few hours.