...that the "wall" that prevents gross manipulation of this stock is us.
There are no options with puts and calls like larger stocks, which would give holders possibilities of hedging thier positions. So we are at the whim of those who would throw large sums at the sell, much like last week, and we watch with wide eyed bewilderment as the price plunges. If options were available, puts and calls could be bought or sold to protect (somewhat) against the situation. There aren't that many shares available. This board might represent 10% of those.
So. We can be whacked with downside moves. What is wrong? Nothing is wrong with the stock (afaik). The NEXT divvy should be 25 cents higher ...there are just people out there trying to drive down the price so they can capitalize. If you sell your stock they win.
I bought at 37.01 Thursday. I will buy more if it goes lower.
that's not the right answer, the right answer is know what you are buying, and what it's worth.
I knew what WHX was worth, and was amazed it was going up so much. I shd have shorted it.
MSB is a iron ore trust that expires very far into the future. 20 years after the last of the original investors dies, and they are all about 60 now, so it can go on for 50-60 more years. Plus, it moves with the weather up in N dakota, the river locks are frozen now, they freeze every year, and the trust goes down every year, because the royalty shrinks every yr for Q1. It will be a good buy soon.
Buy things you know and understand. MLPs and trusts are more complex than stocks, but I maintain that 98% of the tech stock investors have no idea what they are buying, and what the stocks are worth.
Here's a similar analysis of BPT from SA, showing that a trust that sells for 110'sh today, and will continue until 2025, is only worth 45/sh.
Now, he made a lot of assumptions, and then said oil would have to trade at 225 for a very long period just to get your money out, and he didn't say what CPI he used. Most of all, he never mentions that Alaskans want the ANR opened for oil drilling, because without the BPT oil revenue, they will be greatly harmed. Without that happening, this pipeline is beyond it's years, and won't stay functional that long.
Bottom line, this is a nice, pertinent analysis, but BPT's future is tied to the ANR issue more than anything else.
And MVO's valuation could be as risky...
re peak oil, I segment my thinking into 2 areas.
I do think we are past peak oil for land drilling. The WW production of oil is the same now as 20 yrs ago, when you only compare oil from land drilling. All the extra capacity came from offshore drilling. (and US eco nuts want to stop the drilling, drive SUVs, and fly in planes. How stupid)
We have no idea how much oil is under the ocean. But all the growth is there, and the costs are much higher.
Meanwhile, land based drillers, like MVO, will get to sell their (relatively cheap) oil at prices set by the most expensive oil.
Brazil/PBR will probably be in production by 2013/14, from those fields that are 10K feet under the ocean. I bet they need to get 100/bbl for that just to break even.
More of my guesses. But i see oil being well over 100 starting by 2013, and never seeing double digits again.
Thanks for the explanation.
In the "short term" I am getting a little concerned
about US oil prices! As you can see they have been
dropping significantly recently. Also I see where they
are having trouble getting oil out of Canada-lower
oil prices now in Canada-and pipelines to US are over
Oil prices going lower?????????????
Once again thanks for your excellent interpretation of
NPV on oil trusts! I will never touch a oil trust again!
Venezuela not stable? Huh?
Did you see CNBC this AM, Steve L the economist guy was doing a thing on inflation, says the inflation there is 29%/yr.
Hugo is heading headlong into the brick wall.
Does not sound like we are disagreeing much if you are saying maybe later this year, we are already pretty much through January.
I am not a big believer in peak oil, but I do think that there is a whole bunch of oil in places where the political situation is not very stable. Nigeria? Venezuela? Much of OPEC. We are not allowing much to go on in the Gulf of Mexico, and sooner or later the economy will catch fire. All of that drives oil pricing, and a lot more forces for more demand with restricted supply. One revolution somewhere from a huge dislocation in the balance.
This volatility seems bizarre?
Has anyone posting here that is a long time
owner experienced this kind of volatility
I have seen posts here in the past that indicated
that winter weather had curtailed production in the
I also say reports that there is a "glut" of oil
in storage in the US-exceeding refinery capacity
that could lead to much lower oil prices?????
Looks like a thinly traded stock that can't be
easily hedged being "manipulated" by traders-
I recently had this stock recommended to me by
a newsletter service I wished I had known about
the volatility factor-never would have touched it!
Oil prices are down this morning after being down yesterday. You are getting paid for the production coming out of the ground, so you should expect the fluctuation down when oil goes down. Of course when it goes up, and it will, you will no longer think of it as "volatility" Hang in there. Oil is heading higher, nearly all predictions are that way.
The has oil hedges at $65 that expired at the end of 2010. MVO can now get the entire market price for the oil it sells which means about a 25 cent increase in the distribution starting Q1. There is a seeking alpha article about it.
Anyway I just found the yahoo message boards and really like your posts!
I am led to believe this differs with various brokers, so it may not work for all. But I know with Charles Schwab, if your shares are pending a sale, even one contingent on a price (limit sale), those shares are unavailable for any other use. The brokerage will not lend them out to another investor to use for short sales. So, my measly few hundred shares are always for sale (and this unavailable for manipulation) at the price of $60/share, good till filled or cancelled. Another thing, real shorts usually do extensive homework. They are, after all, at considerable risk when they take their short position. They are pretty confident a company is overvalued when they come in, and often for good reason. That's why I do not think we are being hit by real shorts; this stock is headed up, and anyone who has done their homework would know that. I think we got hit by some shorting, some profit-taking from long-time longs, and algorithm-driven machine trading, trying to make a few pennies here and there on massive volume. I am unworried about a repetition of that, and will add on any dips as cash allows.