Does not sound like we are disagreeing much if you are saying maybe later this year, we are already pretty much through January.
I am not a big believer in peak oil, but I do think that there is a whole bunch of oil in places where the political situation is not very stable. Nigeria? Venezuela? Much of OPEC. We are not allowing much to go on in the Gulf of Mexico, and sooner or later the economy will catch fire. All of that drives oil pricing, and a lot more forces for more demand with restricted supply. One revolution somewhere from a huge dislocation in the balance.