The price of oil per barrel, now above $86, could top $100, then head up to $130 over time, due to the growing world population, James Rogers, president, chairman and CEO of Duke Energy, told CNBC Wednesday.
“Just the demographics of the world will drive the price up,” added Rogers, speaking from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
Now take a look at Jduane's analysis and add 30% to the bottom row. Or just look at his dividend calculation and multiple 1$100 dividend time 1.3. Its fun to speculate!
If you wish to delve further into the oil supply and demand situation, this link might be useful:
I do not recommend this link for those with heart conditions, pregnant women, or anyone else who might literally be scared to death.
Slide 18 is where things start to get interesting. The phrases "We have little reliable data" and "Decline profiles are steep" should haunt you in your sleep.
The only real obstacle is the "NIMBY" group. The ones that don't want wind power in their line of sight. I think former Sen Ted Kennedy made the comment that he didn't want wind turbines off Nantucket because he went sailing in that area and it spoiled the view.
Well its fun to speculate but I speculate that
there is so much oil sitting in Canada unable
to go anywhere-much more oil being found in
North Dakota-more oil coming from old oil fields
Differential between Brent crude and WTI is at a
alltime high-I think MVO's net oil price could
be below their old hedge price by the time of the
next distribution announcement!
Just way too many uncontrolled variables with this
From a recent report:
The widening of the premium may be limited because rising prices for Brent-based oils are likely to dent profits for refiners, including those that use more sophisticated catalytic crackers to produce gasoline, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“Running Brent in a Singapore cracker consistently earned a negative margin over the past week, a trend that should limit the pull on Brent-related crudes,” a team led by Lawrence Eagles, head of oil research at JPMorgan in New York, said in a Jan. 20 report.
It's very fun. Mr. Rogers actually went on to say that he thought a barrel of crude could go to $200 in the next few years. I've included a link to an interview he gave recently with the BBC. http://seekingalpha.com/article/248106-jim-rogers-weighs-in-on-china-200-oil
While this would be great for MVO, I'd hate to think of what it might do to the world economy.
Oil up almost 5% as Egyptian protest turn violent. Just think there is no oil in Egypt, but should it spread, there sure is oil everywhere else in the Gulf of Oman. Yikes for gasoline prices, but a little more comforting to hold an unhedged oil trust.
If oil were to go so high, MVO would not be the best play. Oil futures would be.
I have a lot of MVO, but consider it to be highly valued at the current price.
If oil stays where it is, the annual distis would be int he $4/sh range, for 15 more yrs, so I pay 36 today, get a total of $60 bucks over 5 yrs, and then I have nothing. Really dumb play.
What is the NPV of $4/yr for 15 yrs? At a 5% discount rate, that sounds like it's less than the current price. I didn't get out the calculator.
MVO has become an oil spec, and an overpriced one at that.
JMO. I totally disagree with Mr Duade's analysis, mostly because he treats MVO like a MLP, and it's not, it ends in 15 yrs.