This might be the last chance to get MVO around the 37 level. With no further geological disasters and world events staying no better or worse than they are now, MVO should proceed on this normal erratic course.
About a month from now an announcement regarding the amount of the next dividend will come out. Some of us (and I know there are some who believe otherwise) think that it will be in the 93 cent range plus or minus a few cents. My feeling is the majority of MVO watchers out there think it will be this large...a big jump over past divvys...and drive the price up in anticipation as we get closer to the announcement.
This means an end to my "vibrate around 38" theory. The bar will have been raised.
So, the thinking out loud part of this is...if this thinking is anywhere near right, what will the share price rise to in anticipation of this? How much is too much? i.e. is there a price you could sell some core holding before the ex date thinking that, had one held and waited for the divvy, you would have made a little more by skipping this and just buying back AFTER the ex-div date?
Just thoughts that occur to me on beer nights....
Do your homework on NRT, I looked at it a while ago, and seem to recall that despite the name, it's much more a NG play than an oil play. US based, operates in Europe?
NG may become the fuel of choice in Europe for electricity generation, the Japan disaster has all those Euro countries that use a lot of nuclear looking at alternatives.
Still, the best NG plays are here in the US, why use a US based company that operates in Europe to spec on NG that is a huge asset for the US?
Thanks for the tip on NRT. I haven't come across them before and will take a look. I've been accumulating shares of a small Utah mining firm called Palladon Ventures, which I really like. They trade at about $1.50 right now, and I believe that by 2012 it will be around $3-$7 a share. I wrote up a blog piece on them to put my thoughts together on the company, but I haven't really tried to advertise it at all. If you're interested I can post a link.
Regarding MVO, 25% of the trust units are owned by MV Energy LLC. Additionally, there is a real interest from MVO to maintain and produce from the property since the operation of the trust lands contributes significantly to the pocket books of Murfin Drilling and Vess Oil. I would say that their interests are definitely aligned with the trust's performance.
Thanks again for the tip, and let me know if you have a question on Palladon.
$0.93 dividend is an unrealistic expectation. $0.75 is more realistic. Don't forget that 1/3 of production for this quarter is still hedged (December production paid in January). A $0.75 dividend should push MVO to @ $43/share.
I just took the 10 -k and subtracted out all hedging expenses and eliminated the bad debt recover income as well and then divided by 11.5 MM shares and got $4.07/ share. This is using the $73/ BBL that was the average in 2010. I dont know why $.93 x 4 = $3.72 is unrealistic, given WTI is about $100 a BBL at the moment.
Sounds good to me. I think MVO should head into the mid 40's after the distribution announcement in April, assuming there isn't a large market correction or black swan event. Good luck to all the longs. I still don't hold MVO, but am watching it closely.
MVO will trade in low 40's in April, high 40's in July and probably cross over $50 by October. There will be run ups to the dividend and pull backs after the dividend each quarter. All of this is dependant on oil trading in the $85-$95 per barrel range. IMHO.