Using US gov't Department of Energy Website prices for oil. Using 230,000 barrels per quarter as best guess of MV Partners production. Using $6,500,000 per quarter as best guess for expenses. Assuming one month delay between MV Partners production and cash received by MVO trust. So production from June-Aug represents cash received Jul-Sept. Production from Sept-Nov represents cash received Oct-Dec.
Previous quarter dividend paid in October was $0.925 actual. June $96,26/barrel July $97.30/barrel Aug $86.33/barrel Average for quarter $93.30 $93.30 less the $7.25 wellhead discount = $86.05 $86.05 X 230,000 barrels = $19,791,500 $19,791,500 - $6,500,000 = $13,291,500 $13,291,500 X 80% = $10,633,200 $10,633,200 / 11,500,000 shares = $0.9246 rounded to $0.925
Projected dividend for quarter to be paid in January 2012 Sept $85.52/barrel Oct $86.32/barrel Nov $97.12/barrel Average for quarter $89.65 $89.65 less the $7.25 wellhead discount = $82.40 $82.40 X 230,000 barrels = $18,952,000 $18,952,000 - $6,500,000 = $12,452,000 $12,452,000 X 80% = $9,961,600 $9,961,600 / 11,500,000 shares = $0.866
So my best guess at dividend for January 2012 is $0.866/share. Anyone have a better estimate ?
I wouldn't say better, but I have a spreadsheet that produces two estimates, one is based on averages post semcrude debacle and it says $.93. The other is based off of the previous quarter similar to yours and it says $.90. I think $.90 is about right.