...I decided to lighten up during this pre-earnings strength - in spite of my belief that radio will do well this year.
My reasons are:
1. Selling my trading shares bought after the last quarter was announced. I mean, they are 'trading shares' and didnt feel like making them an earnings play.
2. Also sold some older inventory. In the last 10q roiak states that they will take a $2 million revenue hit in the Dec qtr as part of a deal with Citadel broadcasting (who is a customer). Not a ton, but something.
Also, the deal with CTDL amounts to over 10% of their revenue. Its been a long term deal (over five years), but the contract runs out on 12/31/09, so there is a bit of risk on it being re-upped. Now I really dont understand the contract, and maybe it may not effect roiak one bit.
Also, looking through ROIAK's historical revenue data, it seems that he Dec qtr is seasonally lighter than the Sept qtr (or Sept is seasonally strong).
I'm often wrong in my timing, and wouldnt be surprised if ROIAK busts out with a solid quarter.
But in the end, I decided to lay up and play it safer.
The revenue increases expected for the rest of the year are going to carry the day here. The Street is going to start piling into this sector "en masse," I fully believe, as Q1 rev. (and earnings) numbers start coming out.