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Intrusion Inc. Message Board

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  • friendofthetrend friendofthetrend May 27, 2002 1:41 PM Flag

    I Am Selling

    I am an outsider. I bought a little INTZ at $1.60s and a bit more at $1.20s. I haven't "backed the truck up" because 1., it's a penny stock-too speculative, 2. we are in a bear market and pessimism still surrounds INTZso, 3. the stock could have further downside.

    That said, I'm interested in adding because:

    1. management guides for 4th Q profitability. I think shares garnered before profitability is achieved will be worth more if/ when it IS achieved. Management's words are backed by significant insider buying.

    2. Cyber security is a growth area, post 9-11.

    After 11 September cyber security has become a government priority. As policy makers come to grips with cyber weaknesses the e-security industry is poised to cash in. http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/business/newsid_1840000/1840702.stm IDC expects the Internet-security market to nearly triple to $14.2 billion by 2005 http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue109/1291.html

    Maybe the insider buying is prompted by a new tone of urgency on the part of the Gov't:

    Muslim and other cyber terrorists groups openly threaten the US.http://www.vnunet.com/News/1126240
    "information warfare or computer network attack" that could "disrupt our military." Http://www.autentico.org/oa09498.html

    3. If/ when a major attack large scale on the internet occurs the upside to all security stocks will be phenomenal, imo. Cheny says, attacks, whatever the form, are "when, not if".

    Cyber Attacks= Call for improved security = gold rush in security stocks.

    The Y2K fears, though mostly unfounded, caused tremendous spending and contributed to the overall tech bubble. Major attack= deja vu all over again for security stocks, imo.

    A successful electronic attack could interrupt power supplies to millions, disrupt airlines, shut down water supplies, cut off access to emergency 911 services and delay millions of dollars in financial transactions http://www.usatoday.com/advertising/orbitz/orbitz-window.htm

    4. The conference call, to me, indicated next Qs should be remarkably improved. A blow out Q, or at least a clear sign of a return to profitability, do wonders for accumulators actively anticipating those events. Blow out? Why not? Maybe the above mentioned threats prompted a new gov't tone, which prompted insider buying and ended with a swollen pipeline of orders. Eg., the government spent $60,000 on INTZ products/svsc last Q, but management anticipates "several million" this year. Asian spending on INTZ products has spiked. Maybe the recent deal with the huge Shanghai company is bearing fruit, I don't know. Appears a spike in US gov't orders is next. Last year the gov't accounted for $300,000 INTZ sales. For each million INTZ gets in gov't sales that segment triples and, I repeat, management predicts "several million". We could be talking a nine to fifteen- fold increase or more, couldn't we? Wall Street likes growth.

    5.I can afford to add shares- I am not over weighted in speculative plays. I know how to cut losses if I'm wrong. I'm disadvantaged regarding specific company knowledge. However, I'm not emotionally tied to the past failings. I'm looking forward. It's a stock symbol to me. I feel, as the price nears cash value, I could pick up shares near the point of maximum pessimism, hopefully using that pessimism to complete my accumulation at low risk entries, just before next Qs turnaround results are announced. Once a reversal of pattern of declining revs is fully evident ,confidence is restored , an uptrend begins.

    A follow up physical attack on infrastructure such as nuclear sites, this time suppl

 
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