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North European Oil Royalty Trust Message Board

  • chanceyboy.rm chanceyboy.rm Dec 11, 2013 4:29 PM Flag

    Current Yield is 11% based on stock price of $19.68

    This "conservative stock" has really dropped over the past 5 days. I don't know why, given that it pays a very nice dividend and has relatively no risk. Looks like some manipulation driving this stock down, based on the final minutes of trading the last couple of days. This stock price is the lowest on the 5 year chart. I think this will bouce back to $23 before the next dividend ex-date.

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    • I guess you all could have made money if you would have purchased this stock in December. Taking a hit today bigtime but still up over from December.

    • I can't see the reply's??

    • "relatively no risk"???
      Where you get that foolish idea from? A commodity trust with no risk???
      Commodity trusts by nature are high risk investments.
      Part of the problem with this one is declining distributions and limited lifetime before their gas reserves are exhausted.

    • Some concerns:
      1. The operating companies do not keep the trust up to date on reserves so all the trust can do is estimate what the "proved producing reserve" is. It is not much of a chore to see that this amounts to about 10.1 years.

      2. While I would argue that the actual reserves are higher, fracking is not a notion that sits well in a Germany so green that it is seriously moving toward green production of electricity. The whole of the trust appears to lie in Germany.

      3. We are no longer dealing with the notion of "Peak Oil". Already the United States has begun the process of getting the infrastructure in place to liquefy the $4 natural gas we produce for sale in Europe where it will sell for $10 to $15 and to Asia where it will sell for maybe $20. Those prices will of course fall as we get exports up to speed -- but as those prices fall so too will be whatever price the operating companies are getting from which they are pay royalties to NRT.

      4. Looking back at the charts, the current price of NRT is indeed a good one for this century. I am a buyer here for that reason. I temper my eagerness with the knowledge that on average over the whole of its history that I could find, NRT pays out $1.90 per year which is not real enticing to a long term investor @$19 if it is not economic to bring on more than the 10.1 years of reserves the trust thinks it has.

      5. Longer term NRT has sold as low at 12 on some longer term charts -- if we get down toward 17 or 18 we
      may find ourselves on the way there. There was a reason NRT with more reserves 20 years ago was expensive at today's 19 and given the reserves, 12 seems more reasonable than 19.

      Near term, I'll buy some under 19.

9.00+0.81(+9.89%)12:06 PMEST