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Capital Senior Living Corp. Message Board

  • mentges mentges Apr 7, 2000 12:16 PM Flag

    Weak hands always sell at the low . . .

    that's how good investors - like the Saudi Prince (who just bought CPQ, AOL at their low) make money. So sell, sell, sell - and let's get the weak hands out of this stock. Computer program indeed!

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    • Here is a realistic outlook on the industry
      trends for the companies in our and similar industries
      (SRV is funeral home/cemetary). These charts are all
      correlated to the timing of the Fed raising interest rates
      (and the Medicare issue to a much smaller degree).
      IMO, this trend will continue until interest rates not
      only stablize, but start to possibly come down. So,
      IMO, unless you think interest rates are possibly
      coming down, your risk is going up.

      These 4
      companies all have huge debt and recuring "one time
      charges" (should rename it "sometime charges" IMO). Some
      differences to note are that CMDC and SRV had related party
      "one time charges" which have resulted in pending
      lawsuits.

      I cannot help but wonder about Cohen
      being on the payroll and board of the ILM's until just
      before the mergers were announced. I also cannot help
      but wonder about the "Triad" one time charges and
      where Blake Fail of Traid fits into the CSU
      picture.

      Also note that one way or another, bad news will be
      forthcoming on the ILM's. Either CSU gets them at a price 75%
      greater than current market with a high interest rate on
      the "new" $155 million additional debt or we take
      huge charges to get out of the deal (IMO). So do not
      kid yourself about the price going up anytime soon. I
      do not see how it can be possible.

      Look at
      this closly and remember if interest goes up more, the
      lines in the charts go down further (IMO):
      http://quote.bloomberg.com/gcenter/gcenter.cgi?iquote=CSU&PERIOD=1Y&equote1=CMDC
      &equote2=SNRZ&equote3=SRV&EXCH=US&T=markets_gcenter99.ht&x=36&y=10

      • 2 Replies to silber31
      • In one of your earlier posts, you mentioned your broker/adviser. Would it be possible for you to mention his/her name and email address?

        Thank you for your informative posts.

      • Thanks for the input and continued interest in
        CSU. I just rechecked and after the price drop, CSU is
        now about 2.5% of my portfolio so I'm just going to
        ride this one out. It's a risk and I agree that the
        whole deal stinks at present. If I had more at stake I
        probably would have sold when you did. As it is, I'm
        prepared to hold this for years if necessary. If CSU drops
        into the 1's I'll buy a few more shares and continue
        to hold.
        OT - have you looked at LGTO?? Roadkill
        supremo. I sold at 70 but still have 100 "lucky" shares
        from before the first plunge. Think I might pick up a
        little more. Thanks for the tips on VERT and CLRS. I
        still have a big stake in VRTY. Wish I had some VRSN!!

 
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