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Cedar Fair, L.P. Message Board

  • non_vacuous non_vacuous Aug 1, 2005 6:47 PM Flag

    Cedar Fair lowers guidance

    Very poor results, and against a VERY easy YOY comparable! Last year's results were horrible (Geauga Lake, Castaway Bay just opening), and they barely beat them.

    Geauga Lake continues to suck the life out of the company. They'll undoubtedly need to dump millions more into it, over and above the millions they've already (mis)directed there and the hundreds of millions they (mis)appropriated to acquire. BTW, those are monies that could have been used on something productive (and profitable.)

    "...based on preliminary results through July and the poor performance of Geauga Lake, we now expect to generate full-year revenue growth of 5-7% over last year�s $542 million level, down slightly from our original guidance of 6-8% growth, and full-year adjusted EBITDA on the lower end of our original guidance of $185-$195 million.�

    And for those who were wondering about the weather, there's this tidbit:

    "At Knott�s Berry Farm, we were unable to recapture any of the early-season attendance shortfall that resulted from the record rainfall..." ROTF!

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    • Baby Jack is fine now, I have him sitting in front of the TV watching CNBC.

      <<Geauga Lake continues to suck the life out of the company. They'll undoubtedly need to dump millions more into it, over and above the millions they've already (mis)directed there and the hundreds of millions they (mis)appropriated to acquire. BTW, those are monies that could have been used on something productive (and profitable.)>>

      Your argument here has the benefit of perfect timing. 3Q ended about the fourth week of June, the water park opened when? The fact that attendance at GL suffered as a result of the delay of the opening of WWK was indeed a slight disappointment, but should not surprise anybody. Next quarter's results will more accurately show the prudence of the cap ex at WWK this year and next. Aa a unitholder, I am definitely patient enough to wait until next year to see this investment pay dividends (or distributions).

      The $.22 net didn't knock the cover off the ball, agreed, but I don't believe it is a meaningful comparison. A much more meaningful comparison would be six months worth. 2Q and 3Q to the previous year compares one operating season to another, where the calendar can shorten or lengthen one quarter at the expense of the other that year by as many as six operating days. I invited you and everyone else on this board to that party last November on several occasions and nobody had a word to say.

      You have a few legitimate contentions, however, the most significant being the difference between the pay out and the net the last few years. I, also, would like to know where this difference comes from and how Cedar Fair intends to continue into the future to pay the unitholders without enough net income to do so. I would welcome any dialogue on this matter. I agree that, in the unlikely event Cedar Fair would ever have to reduce the distribution rate, the unit price would likely drop by the same percentage.

      We will see you here in November when we can have a useful comparison to last year's season.

      90 and sunny again today. Great day for a trip to Geauga Lake.

 
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