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Neuberger Berman Real Estate Se Message Board

  • stgardening stgardening Feb 7, 2008 11:06 AM Flag

    just bought!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I have waited for the last 3 days to buy looks like a good entry point....just wait and hold for the div's.....good luck all............

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    • I bought another 300 shares this morning at $11.28.I now have 2300 shares.
      GL to all longs!

      • 1 Reply to drcott2000
      • I hope I’m wrong, but I sense a short-term overbought condition in both the S&P 500 and REIT indices. NRO could be trading below $10 again within the next 30 days.

        In other words, these prices don’t qualify as a good entry point for purchase or accumulation IMO. Hard to tell if NRO investors are just excited about the current rally or traders are up to their old tricks (tempt you with overbought shares just before a big drop). Either way, beware.

    • hey CW what do you think about the Clintons making 109 MILLION BIG ONES in just 6 years. Talk about the ELITE RICH! Do you think she really cares about the common man as much as she says or do you think she is just a power hungery @#!$%^*!!!!!!!!!!!! LOL of course the San Fransico Bay Area where I live in is so liberal. Not like you down in TEXAS! Yee Ha! How are the rentals going got them all occupied? I have had 100% occupancy this year no turn over and no maintance cost! Plus my loan is a variable and my intrest cost have gone down every month since the Fed started to cut rates. Cash in my pocket I will be looking to lock in a fixed rate later in the year like in the next 4 to 6 months my current rate is 4 3/4% can't beat that with a stick. I think their will start to be pressure on intrest rates later this year and begging in 09! What are your thaughts? Ya solar is more of an European story at the moment than an american especially spain! by the way I am looking for a steady upward pressure on NRO'S share price over the next few years. Reits are way undervauled at their current levels...Go NRO

    • Still In. Fell due to another analyst (Frederick Cannon) putting in his two cents....thinks WM is worth $9 billion, or $10 per share...

      Solar stocks are soaring due to optimisim over the extension of the tax credits being extended (Senators Maria Cantwell and John Ensign proposal) ,Investors are more optimistic about the extension of federal subsidies,...Im fully exposed to that arena as previously disclosed...even bought more YGE on Friday:
      04-04-2008 3797274170 Bought 100 YGE @ 22.3199 -2241.98
      02-21-2008 3669877236 Bought 100 YGE @ 19.7699 -1983.99

      Go NRO...current NAV is $11.84 with price of $11.17 or discount of 6%......


    • Hey CW what happened to your WM shares today! down hard.Were you able to take advantage of the pop in the share price over the last week to get out as I know you are not a long term holder but a swing trader. Hope you got out down over 10% today. I know WM has a lot of subprime exposure. If I was going to buy finance stocks I think I would buy an index to take advantage of the sell off and not an individual company to much risk Look at Bear Stearns every thaught 60 was cheap then in less than 48 hours it was trading at 2!!!!!!!!!!!! Wow what a loss. I just do not have confidence in any individual Bank or thrift that has exposure to subprime I think before this recession ends we will see another head choped off. Countrywide,Etfc,Bear stearns, Maybe WM is next on that list if their is a run on that thrift! Any ways thats just my 2 cents worth I am by no means an expert on the subject. Do your own DD!

    • I agree on solar, and am exposed. I shotgunned the China solar producer plays back in Feb, slightly too early as it seems now, but they were oversold then, before the BSC debacle, I have LDK, Solf, YGE, and have bought and sold STP twice, currently up on the three Im holding. BTW, stevee G. NRO is a CEF, not an ETF, :).
      02-21-2008 3669877236 Bought 100 YGE @ 19.7699 -1983.99
      02-26-2008 3679989639 Bought 80 LDK @ 29.9199 -2400.59
      02-26-2008 3679887043 Bought 100 SOLF @ 13.8999 -1396.99

      02-01-2008 3628946259 Sold 40 STP @ 55.1101 2197.37
      01-29-2008 3609452053 Bought 40 STP @ 52.42 -2103.80

      02-20-2008 3667489724 Sold 100 STP @ 38.72 3864.95
      02-20-2008 3667307697 Bought 100 STP @ 35.7999 -3586.99

      I bought SGP on the heavy selloff, as oversold on unfounded fear of the Vytorin use, like that is all they do. PFE doesent look bad, with RSI of 50 and below 50dma, but SGP simply looks delicious with recent RSI of 22 on drop to 5 yr lows on unfounded fear and panic, just their over-the-counter business alone is worth something (Animal health, Dr Schols, coppertone, Bain du soleil, Lotrimin ,Correctal, MiraLax)> Even in a down economy, with consumer discretionary income crimped, people still will buy drugs, and its defensive play. 55,000 employees in 140 Countrys. Current forcasted EPS of $1.46 in '08 by 15 analysts on current price of $15.29 (im in at $14.39) gives PE of 10
      03-31-2008 3772743369 Bought 100 SGP @ 14.385 -1438.50
      03-31-2008 3772743366 Bought 50 SGP @ 14.3891 -729.45
      I just bought SEED today, as a play on Chinas need for crop seed, Corn and Rice seed, especially genetically modified (GM) corn seed, which SEED has a government license to be the sole manufacturer of GM phytase corn. It is expected to be one of the first transgenic corn products approved and sold in China. The enzyme phytase is present in the digestive systems of many plant-eating animals and enables them to breakdown phytic acid. By genetically modifying the corn, Origin Agritech hopes to reduce the need for inorganic phosphate supplements to be added to the feed, thereby reducing phosphate pollution, which can lead to algae bloom and freshwater contamination -- potentially serious environmental hazards.
      This stock is oversold now due to recently oversupply of seed in China, and the Govt making them sell at lower prices because China forced provincial seed authorities to separate from existing sales affiliates last year, and they ended up liquidating their inventories, thereby depressing prices. I think this is temporary, as you cant really store seed long without fear that it will not be good. Do your own DD.

    • I would rate NRO a hold at current prices, which are more likely testing intermediate highs. The big jump in the stock market recently was probably another Plunge Protection Team engineered short squeeze. Hank and Ben are working overtime these days (reason enough to worry).

      If you thought March was tough with the Bear Stearns debacle, April is likely to be even worse. I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 hovering between 1,150 and 1,200 this summer.

      If you are going to buy NRO, better to accumulate when it is oversold than when it is overbought. Let the market makers and slick traders play their games and then swipe their shares during the oversold periods. Then you can sell some shares for a short-term capital gain and recycle it into more shares (more income) later during the next cycle. You can also recycle your generous dividends into highly discounted shares to produce even more income later.

      Protect your principal from the shady characters out there constantly looking to “eat your lunch” ;)

      • 1 Reply to Python_71
      • Though I always appreciate your comments. Here's why...

        This is a strong buy up to the price where it yields 10% or lower. NRO is a bit of a time are buying a fund that started buying yield 6 years ago, so you can buy yield that has grown over time at roughly 2002 pricing. Hard to find an opportunity like that anywhere in the market.

        If you look at REITs since the modern REIT era began in the early 1990s...REITs have, on average, returned 12% including that with the S&P over that same time. Both have had booms and busts. REITs now twice (once in the late 1990s as well, precipitated by the Long Term Capital Management debacle that nearly guessed it...the credit markets). As it turned out, REITs were a screaming buy once that sell-off abated, and I think in a year's time, assuming interest rates stay low (they will, more than likely), we are going to be in the same spot.

        Read Warren Buffet's latest annual report. The past 100 years' return in the stock market assumed like 7-8% per year. However, to replicate this return, the Dow would have to reach 24 million or something ridiculous like that (can't remember exactly). Is that really going to happen in our lifetimes? Doubtful. Very simple reason...over the past 100 years, the dividend yield was far greater (nearly 4x)...and so you didn't have to rely on the vagaries of capital appreciation to get you your return. With the S&P yielding about'll need 6-7% growth in share price. Over time, with an economy growing at 2-3% tops, you are going to be hard pressed to find earnings growing at nearly 2-3x GDP growth.

        Look at Australia, where REITs have returned nearly 20% per year. They have mandatory retirement investing, whereby its citizenry has to put about 9% of its pretax income into a privatized retirement vehicle. REITs have been moon shots over the last 15 years there...I actually think that will eventually happen here.

        Very simply...on average REITs are yielding about 5-6%, and will grow at about inflation...say 3-4% going forward with the low interest rates. That's 8-10% total return per year standing still. Now, if they redevelop, build business platforms, etc., they can probably add 1-2% growth per year.

        Frankly...I think we are on the cusp of an era where REITs actually garner some respect in markets. That is my opinion.

        As such, NRO and its ilk are not merely holds at this point. You should be accumulating them strongly...averaging in, and trying to capture a once in a generation yield opportunity. The REIT market will likely be sideways for a year, maybe two, but then assuming the global economy keeps inflation low (in the US, our low interest rates are very troublesome for the prospect of increased inflation), and therefore rates stay low...REITs will rally once again.

        Heck, even if inflation picks up...real estate has always been a fantastic place to hedge your inflation risk. Either way, it's hard not to be excited about prospects here, and you have NRO at lows based mainly on fear and not fundamentals.

        I've been accumulating strongly here. I'm up to nearly 4000 shares, and building. I think this is an incredibly strong buy here.



    • Whats up Stevee G. Im with you bro... :)


      • 1 Reply to coursonc
      • hey CW good to see you on this board. Not a bad day today! Me personaly I like it when etf like nro are down because I am a net buyer in this market and I like it when my div's buy the shares at lower prices get more shares that way! Like I said in January 2000 that this market will trade sideways for the next 10 to 20 years! Talking about the SP 500! So far I have been right and we are 8 years in! But I am just a young man still in my early 30's So that is good news to me as I am adding around $3000 into the stock market everymonth of fresh capital! I just look for stocks or etf that have good yields that pays me to wait and I do not worry to much about the day to day up and downs but I do look for stocks trading at mulityear lows with good fundamentals and so far this year has proven a good time to be buying reits! Best time to buy in the last 10 years as far as valuations go. My latest purchase was Pfe 6% plus yeild its trading at 8 times forward earnings healthy balance sheet strong cash flow payed 20 and some change a share hell of deal they have raised the div's for the last 40 years every year. I wonder what Pfe will be worth when I am ready to sell those shares in maybe 30 years if I live that long any takers oh yeah include the div's with that return compounding by the way PFE is not a reit its a drug company for those of you who dont know anything. Hey by the way CW how the chickens out their in Texas getting good eggs! And say hi to Brent for me he must be getting big.

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