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Neuberger Berman Real Estate Se Message Board

  • smaug_the_great_one smaug_the_great_one Mar 7, 2008 2:52 PM Flag

    Thoughts to ponder over the weekend

    "What happens when the music stops playing? What happens when the real estate market no longer benefits from falling interest rates? What happens when people can no longer buy houses on margin? What happens when home values drop a trillion dollars at a time? What happens when equity shrinks? What happens when teaser and liar loans are taken off the table? What happens when lousy credit borrowers can no longer qualify for loans? What happens when homes stop selling? What happens when fully-leveraged homeowners start walking away from their homes? What happens when millions of properties face foreclosure at the same time?

    What happens when those foreclosures come back on the market? What happens when homebuilding, construction, real estate and financing boomtimes end? What happens when houses no longer function as ATM's? What happens when homeowners stop tapping the shrinking equity in their homes? What happens when houses no longer "appraise?" What happens when consumer credit defaults mount? What happens when banks take away equity lines of credit? What happens when financiers lose trillions of dollars on leveraged and poorly-collateralized loan portfolios? What happens when investors don't want hot potatoes anymore? What happens when credit market begins to seize up? What happens when consumer confidence declines, the economy contracts, earnings turn down, jobs are lost, the stock market drops, people begin to cash in their 401(k)'s, structured finance unravels, Fannie Mae wobbles, the Fed becomes powerless, buying psychology is damaged and there are no savings to fall back on?

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    • What has that got to do with commercial Real Estate? Every Analyst is saying there is a downturn in construction, but in most markets occupancy rates are high. Is your point that your short, and trying to beat down an over sold stock, that is moving with the market? If it is, be ready to cover, the mother of all bear traps is being set by the big boys. The Fed is forcing liquidity into the market, and whacking interest rates in big chunks. Speculators are already snapping up properties. So I'd think about covering if I were short.

    • .... I decided to buy a fancy tent with a wood burning stove and a pile of wood along with a cot and blankets in a fairly warm climate. Made friends with Chief who says I can have his daughter to cook and do not pay rent on little lot. Chief says he will let me know when NRO is $30.00 next year! Chief always right!

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