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Otter Tail Corporation Message Board

  • aces_over_8ss aces_over_8ss Apr 13, 2006 3:45 PM Flag

    Knock, knock....

    who's there?

    $70/bbl oil.

    (actually almost $71 right now).

    Ouch.

    Summer driving season almost here.
    EtOH supply is questionable with the deadline approaching.

    This is going to be a killer for a lot of people.

    We put in a higher low... looks like we are heading for a higher high next.

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    • regis,

      i'm with the guys....plus, and this is a big PLUS...i never made money in options when i was trying to use them to reap a windfall. i have CONSISTENTLY made money with options when i have used to reap gains -- AND TAKE THEM. when i've got a $1K gain on a set of options, I take half. It goes higher, I sell everything but one last lonely contract, so i still have the "feeling" i'm in the game.

      and then, when 99% of the time, i see the option fall back, i have the option to go in and back usually.

      now you play the most current contract, so you wouldn't want to buy back in.....so my buy back strategy wouldn't work for you...but, the taking the gains part would.

      take the gain, take the gain. every hit doesn't have to be a homer.

    • Regis,

      Double agreement with Aces and Moose...RIMM has monster support @ the 200 Day EMA around 73..It broke thru to the downside the 20 and 50 EMA this past week...so now they are your resistance to the upside...

      I don't think the MM's will let this fall below 73, due to the high number of puts...

      I like to use the MACD and price/volume as my primaries, with the Stochs and RSI being my confirming secondary indicators...

    • regis, exactly what aces said. When using technical indicators, no single indicator should be used. A single indicator can be used to flag a potential move but your odds go up quite a bit when you have 3 or 4 indicators lined up correctly. Only then would I say with a degree of confidence that a stock is ready to move one way or another. Breaking the 50 MA is a good indicator but I also use RSI, Stochastics, and MACD crossovers for my main technical indicators (and there are many others but that's the ones I'm more comfortable with).

      Remember, rimm is not your everyday run-of-the-mill stock, it is a MONSTER. I can't tell you how many times that the option buyers for both puts and calls get totally screwed by waiting till the end of OE to close their positions. The ones selling those options have been the big winners in rimm.

      Look at this 6 month chart of GOOG:
      zzzzhttp://139.142.147.19/StockChart_ImageOnly.dll?cus=0&co=ask&i_chart=0&inm=5&ind=
      2&idx_sym=&sb=goog&cn=us&size=1&ind2=-6&inm2=-1&ty=2&sca=1&chk_mov=on&mov1=20&mo
      v2=50&mov3=200&boll=0&lin=0&chk_vol=on&chk_rsi=on&rsi=8&chk_sto=on&sto1=15&sto2=
      5&sto3=5&wil=12&chk_macd=on&macd1=12&macd2=25&macd3=9&roc1=16&roc2=8&mfi=14&rsc_
      sym=INX&ref_rate=0


      In it, 2 of my 4 indicators are bearish. The other day, when GOOG failed to take out 420 and the stochs and rsi turned down, I bought a small position of May puts. We are getting closer to a MACD crossover which will give me a 3rd bearish indicator and I will likely add to my position then. The 50 day MA is around 380 so its still got a bit to go on that. Of course, the factor that I can't game is their earnings on the 20th. And as the saying goes, "TA is great, but news screws" which means any type of significant news can totally mess up the greatest looking chart.

    • ben can't possibly raise rates to the level needed to control inflation. all the entitlements are pegged, and those payments rise with the increases......and given the budget situation, we can't afford to have real numbers published.

    • >>>Money will still chase yield.<<<

      Agreed. But, the difference is that Volker worked to get interest rates ABOVE real inflation (the only way to actually control inflation) so that you were getting a REAL return on your money.

      The "high" yields today are still below real inflation (not the BS numbers that the gov't puts out) so there will still be a lot of money looking for a better return.

      If BB actually gets rates > inflation, then I agree with you. IMO, he is way behind the curve here and will remain so.

    • I'm probably anchored in the 70's on this:

      Oil prices rose enormously. The fed printed tons of money. The money chased the best yield in enormous quantities. Back then, that was money markets - a new thing then. The drain in liquidity on the banks paralyzed the economy (banks were restricted on interest rates). But I do remember an attempt at a bull market before we got the Reagan recession.

      Money will still chase yield. So maybe it is a question of at what point, and when, it no longer functions to juice the US economy. It juices some other economy.

    • Moose... Goose... one letter, but a big difference!

      Yes, breaking the 50 MAs is bearish, but take everything in context. Don't rely on one indicator alone.

      Also, some stocks consistently dip below the 50 MAs before bouncing, while others consistently bounce right on the number... look back further at the chart. It seems like RIMM is a bit of a mixed bag. Sometimes it tracks just below for a while before recovering... sometimes it bounces on the number.

      With only a week to go on the April options, we could easily see an oversold bounce that carries us past OE before the trend resumes.

      As Moose said... don't be a pig...

    • >>>To me, this is a market waiting for a catalyst to go down<<<

      Agreed. But the Fed is printing $$$ like crazy, and it all has to go somewhere. So in nominal terms, the dollar value of stocks may continue to rise until people lose confidence in the USD.

      As I have detailed here previously, I think that we are heading into an inflationary blowoff in the stock market.

      I can see the other side too... and I am very prepared for that also.

    • regis, I just did a quick chart check on rimm and I'd have to side with mati in regards to rimm's short term direction. The stochastics and rsi are tickling the bottom ends of their respective ranges. You might get a little more downside but make sure that you're not a piggy on those puts and give it all back if rimm shoots up 3 or 4 points on nothing but air.

    • If you're an income investor who has been getting 3% in 3 year CDs the last few years, you rush to lock in the higher rates avaailable now. Retirees with cash have been hurting a long time. 5% looks real good. But there is something magic about 7%.

      At 7%, a whole bunch of people can't qualify for mortgages anymore and have to rent. Rent rates start to go up (apt. Reits prosper). House sales go down, bubbles burst all over the place.

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