"New Home Sales Rebound in March" and the following:
"Irvine, Calif., April 24, 2006/PRNewswire/�RealtyTrac, the leading online marketplace for foreclosure properties, today released its 2006 Q1 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which showed that 323,102 properties nationwide entered some stage of foreclosure in the first quarter of 2006, a 38 percent increase from the previous quarter and a 72 percent year-over-year increase from the first quarter of 2005. The nation's quarterly foreclosure rate of one new foreclosure for every 358 U.S. households was higher than in any quarter of last year."
to me the most interesting thing about the home sales numbers was the amount of discounting that went on to get the closure rate. how long can companies like RYL and KBH do this -- and how deep will they go? Also, there are legal (read expensive) considerations here too -- you close on one guy one day at X, and then, you can't close the guy down the street lower within a matter of days without opening up potential lawsuits....also, you deflate the value of your entire development, which means the homeowners go ballistic....
My thoughts focused on the financing. HBs get buyers into the houses via no-down, interest only ARMs. When the ARMs adjust up, as they are doing in boatloads this year, the buyer walks away since payments have been no more than rent, and there's no down payment to lose. Meanwhile, the HBs keep right on financing to move inventory. If the foreclosed houses come back into inventory, then there's an implosion waiting to happen...but do any of the HBs retain responsiblity for the mortgages, or have they mostly been off-loaded out the backdoor to the M-REITs?