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Otter Tail Corporation Message Board

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  • balegoba1966 balegoba1966 Jun 20, 2006 10:21 AM Flag

    Oil stocks...

    Each year NBR has a May-July sell off. This reflects worry about the start of the hurricane season, when rigs won't necessarily be working everyday. So just in advance of hurricane season, service companies like NBR ink deals at cheaper day rates to lock in business. It looks like rig prices are decreasing. But it is just a seasonal quirk. So oil stocks are in "seasonal quirk" now. Check back in August. The "quirk" should be to the upside by then.

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    • That makes sense.
      Thanks for the insight.

    • You may be right about the drillers in the May-June time frame but this pullback has been for refiners as well. Not as severe for this other sector but a pullback. What I found confusing was the fundamentals for Ngas are a bit more bearish and the Canadian trusts are shrugging that off, while the American trusts have pulled back quite a bit. The only thing I can think of thats causing the disparity is that the Canadian trust pay dividends in CAD so the return has actually been increasing when converted to USD. As Ive said all along, these can be hidden currency plays.

      Crude still isnt extremely tight on the market and there have been some finds off the west coast of Africa. Sir John Brown spouted off about crude going lower too, so perhaps the market is pricing that in. On a P/E basis the stocks looks great but the market is saying something isnt right.

      I suppose when the first hurricane kicks up, the shit will hit the fan.

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