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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

  • unleashinggenius unleashinggenius May 12, 2009 10:52 PM Flag

    Going forward! The worst is probably over.

    After thinking things over and looking at ENER, SPWRA and FSLR and their earnings and the markets reaction, we're going to be ok. But not on Wednesday and maybe not on Thursday. But that should be the end of the worst. Here are some things to think about before you sell any shares.

    Other companies
    -First Solar had a great quarter but the CEO said "things never looked more difficult." The stock went from $156 back in April and is now at $190.
    -ENER had a profit of 3 cents a share, $1.3m net. The stock went from $20 to $15 the next day. It hit $17.36 today and closed at $16.41
    -SPWRA expected 23 cents in earnings and hit 5 cents. They had $11m in operating income. Then they added 10m new shares. The stock went from $28 down to $22 and is now back at $28, having hit $30 along the way.

    So what can we say about SOLR
    -It has no debt
    -It is generating cash, and will for these next two quarters at least
    -It has lots of cash on hand
    -Woodbury confirmed on the call they will hit 40% gross margins this year and for the next couple of quarters at least will hit 27-30% operating margins.
    -They have a very controllable cost structure with only 320 people, a virtual manufacturing model for reactors and high down payments and letters of credit.

    -AND by the way they had a VERY GOOD YEAR. (Our expectations were just too high, especially considering the environment and all we have heard about the fall off in solar. We just thought we were invincible, and hopefully Zarella and Woodbury are more conservative in their investors meetings.) Their new conservative guidance of $450 to 550m in revenue for 2010 is a good start.

    -Since April 9th SOLR has been selling for about $7 a share with good volume of over 1m shares a day. What this says is that this whole new group of investors will be down 25 or 30% depending on how SOLR does in these next two days. My bet - they buy more when it drops. There is much more to like about SOLR. The future is there and it is not so far off, it just isn't visible in the near term. In the meantime the company will produce some pretty good numbers.

    Tomorrow could be nasty but then look for a very quick snap back into the mid-$6's. From there - the marketplace will tell us. I wont't be selling after all, other wise I'll be locking in a loss from $7.

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    • This is exactly why you can't fall in love with a position. You keep having the what if's or if I just hold on a little longer I will make it all back.

      This was me about a couple years ago and then I said Fuck it. I am in a portfolio based on my risk profile consisting of ETF's. This website got me set up for virtually nothing, sends me a great newsletter and their forum is packed full of useful information. I have lost less money than the indicies in down markets and mirror them in up markets. Check them out take the quiz for free and never look back:


      • 1 Reply to scottmilr
      • Definitely agree, checked the site out it's legit. Took the risk profile questionnaire and they actually sent me their quarterly newsletter! Sure wish I would have had this when they published it in April.

        The concept looks very promising, and am thinking of signing up. I am really sick of losing a chunk of money just because of one stock. ETFs look to be the way of the future

    • Good post as ever, unleash !
      Solars still are the future and this inevitable dip will give us longs a good opportunity to add some cheap shares.
      There's nothing wrong with this company, and the cockroaches popping up on this board won't change that.

    • There's the Unleashing of old...bust out a can of Raid, there's roaches scampering all over this board, and they're getting into everything!

      SOLR indeed took one on the chin today. Ok...the only major solar up over 150% on the year got taken down a peg. The long-term growth potential remains very good, and I can only hope that is taken into consideration with what will undoubtedly be a very good entry point.

      This stock comprises about 99% of my portfolio. I averaged in at just over $3 and remain happily long - anything better than what was just released for the next quarter, and we're easily at $10. This was a bad day, but the market will forgive and forget after a few weeks.

      On a side note, I'm excited about future revenue from our silane expansion. Silane is frequently used in the manufacture of thin film PV (also in growing semiconductor and LCD industries). When (not if) the PV market heats up worldwide, so will the demand for silane gas.

      We will continue to grow.

    • Dude - you are completely full of crap, lol - this is exactly what I said would happen and you probably covered your short after hour or have a mkt order in for tomorrow AM - sheeesh! Been around the block long enough to spot 'em... and some of the other contrary knuckle heads around here - well they be you too, douche bag, lol! You'll be lucky if this thing settles out in the fives tomorrow; it's just out of gas for the time being, lol - pretty ironic for a solar stock, lol!