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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

  • hangmaniceman1 hangmaniceman1 Mar 1, 2013 12:18 PM Flag

    The big picture...

    GTAT has been basing for the last 5 months. Monthly and weekly chart indicate positive divergence perhaps implying what may lie ahead , etc. Daily chart also indicates oversold condition. Yet, sentiment remains very low due to less than constructive price action.

    Nevertheless, all is not lost. Price action, even though it many appears to be making new lows everyday, in my opinion, it is very possible that it is re-establishing the support (double bottom).

    The sentiment remains very low, perhaps another contrarian indicator. Yet, there are solid bids in which we will find out if it means anything in days to come, etc.

    Obviously, the institutional money mangers who may have bought GTAT as a growth stock could be having a second thought of owning a stock that looks bad on their report to their respective investors. Therefore, some of the shares maybe changing hands from growth oriented portfolios to more or less value oriented portfolios.

    Another important question is the intent of the large short interest (SI) and how and when they intent on realizing or booking the profits, etc. By putting myself on their position, we can extrapolate what they maybe thinking. I short, they don't have too many options. Simply put it, they will have to cover at some point. Based on many instances of similar SI situations, a stampede is not entirely out of the question.

    I would imagine price action could be weak until those need to sell, done selling. Usually a constructive price action comes when people give up all hope and when bad news is replaced with good news.

    In the final analysis, I would imagine 2.76 is cheap!


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    • I think the money managers involved in this stock are by large "value investors" and have been for quite some time. I feel like it's trading pretty efficiently, with pretty big volume considering the size of the company and its business, and less volatility than other names in the sector(s).
      I think high $2s to $3.00 is actually a reasonable valuation for this given the current risk/reward. I don't think it is some kind of "panic selling" we are seeing.

      A panic sale would get it to low $2s, I'd consider picking up some additional shares then, but not now. It's simply not undervalued right now IMO.

      • 1 Reply to l_yoni
      • The beauty is in the eyes of the beholder; so is the price of a stock. AAPL is a good example. I would imagine that GTAT is the exact opposite of such sentiment. IMO, based on what has transpired in the 4th qtr of 12, the valuation has discounted sufficiently to reflect current business condition and potential risks, such that, at today's price at sub