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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

  • hapihammer hapihammer Mar 23, 2013 9:07 AM Flag

    GTAT vs RBCN

    hm overall I like the upside potential for GTAT better than RBCN but as is the case anytime you take 1 metric for comparison another 1 or many can be brought up.

    GTAT is a more leveraged company than RBCN. As such GTAT's Tangible Book value is about $1.25 which translates to a Price/Tangible book ratio of 2.2, where as RBCN's tangible book value is $10.00 and P/TB is 0.6 so on that metric RBCN looks much more attractive. Granted from a profitability, P/S and just about any other ratio GTAT is the more attractive company IMHO. In addition while it's hard to be thrilled with either company's management when the perfect storm sets up against them, from what I've heard from both CEO's I think TG and team has RBCN's management beat but opinions are like you know what, everyone has one.

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    • tdsnow Mar 23, 2013 1:42 PM Flag

      This is a reply to on_pphire (l like your handle):

      I am experiencing the same problem as you on the replies. I couldn't reply to your post or even my own post so I am replying to hh's.

      I am sure 90% or more of the shares shorted are by the top institutional owners (UBS , DnB Asst Mgmt, etc.) They have shorted GTAT as a hedge to their long position. It’s nothing for them to wait a year for price to appreciate so they don’t care if their own shorting is causing the value of their long position to suffer. Right now they know they have one more bad earnings report to manipulate this stock, but I bet they have been reducing their short position already in March. I have some more money sitting on the sidelines to invest but have been waiting for 2.50 or low 2’s. I know that sounds bad but I never thought this stock would go below 3 so who’s to say they can’t drive it down to 2? Things will get better by May.

      • 2 Replies to tdsnow
      • I didn't think it would drop below $3 so I loaded up there....if you have money on the sidelines and have some shares...hold that cash until April or buy around $2.35.

        I don't even find that a fair price that should be hit, I think its just about what you said, the institutional short hedge and long time frame with one more bad report to manipulate the price without being obvious.

        I am watching closely for the whip saw that steals every retail holders shares that put up stops. I think it happened at least a little bit wednesday the 20th at noon on that rapid drop and pop to 2.60's

        I was shocked at the friday's end of day action, I really thought they would slam it to 2.67 at the close

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Thanks, ever since I found out they can make a real sapphire gigantic i can't help but imagine the future possibilities, to me it is space age stuff...the real uses haven't even begun to be imagined.

        Crystals from star trek to super man ya know!

        I have some loose corundum lab sapphire gemstones coming in the mail next week, can't wait to see 1. if they really are lab corundum sapphire 2. if they are real ... are they jewelry quality.

        Someday I'd like to ask someone if they'd prefer this flawless, chemically identical diamond for $1000 or this internally flawed, ground dug diamond for $5000.

        and then just laugh when they say they'd prefer the ground dug diamond, but tell them it was a trick and they actually pointed to the lab diamond.

        anyway a little of subject but i do love that the Vertu phone has a "50 carat" sapphire screen. Its going to be some time before people even grasp what that means.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I transferred out of rbcn after that last conference call rbcn didn't seem to have any plans for the thinking right now is that rbcn call was priced in and is rebounding technically. I feel gtat is a better long term investment based on size, customers, leadership and diversity.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to on_pphire
      • tds I got an error replying to you so had to reply to my own post...anyway...

        I would like someone to address the 90+% ownership and how that affects stock price performance. If the entire float of a stock is bought up then its the traders of the small float left over that control the price.

        If I were an institution with a good portion of the float in such a situation I wouldn't mind increasing float by "shorting" my own shares to create a market, plus make some money in the meantime.

        of course this shorting causes selling pressure and a lower pps. At some point if the future looks up these institutions will want their long shares back

        just spewing thoughts....

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • tdsnow Mar 23, 2013 11:07 AM Flag

        I have never invested in RBCN and don’t plan to in the future. However, when I compare the two companies, I find it hard to believe GTAT has a market cap of just a little over double that of RBCN.

        What is the market saying? That GTAT is worth $150M for solar, $150M for sapphire, and $10M for power electronics? This is ludicrous.

        Maybe the market is treating RBCN better because of the following reason. Since sapphire cell phone screens are more of a sure bet and LED lighting appears to be taking off, maybe RBCN will be taken over soon by a bigger company and the market is already giving them some of the premium for that possibility.

        Speaking of takeovers, I still think there is a decent chance GTAT may be taken over soon. Initially, I thought AMAT would take them over because of GTAT’s enviable position in solar. Now I am beginning to think there is a better chance GLW will buy them for their leadership in sapphire (with Hyperion and its assumed capability of producing a sapphire laminate as the prize). GLW has a war chest of cash and could easily buy GTAT for $1B. The only problem with this theory is I don’t think GLW wants to get into solar and it would be hard to separate GTAT's solar and sapphire because of Hyperion.

        I hope GTAT forges ahead on their own because I believe that will benefit GTAT stock holders more in the long run.