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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

  • cali_sun99 cali_sun99 May 12, 2013 12:19 PM Flag

    Bank of America Smid Conference Call with GTAT presentation

    -I just listened to this conference which just happened within the week.

    -Sapphire Furnace will cost over $500,000 per unit. I estimated $400,000, so its at least 20% more expensive then my research indicated.

    -GTAT really the only mainstream player to sell these furnaces worldwide per the CC. 5% market adoption is conservative and only for high end phones. "We could of put 10% or more on the chart, but the demand showing would be off the chart" "We will have inventory problems when main players start adoption". Quotes from the presentation.

    -No one in the world has the hicz tech or ion tech being released, obviously. Hicz forecasted to 22% cell efficiency, phosphorous doped to 24% cell efficiency. Sunpower is current market leader at 20%. Significant jump here.

    -Potential Poly contracts opening up in the Middle East and Taiwan. In the CC, we only talk about when they will happen, not "if" any more. Big 400-500 million contract pending in the white paper Middle East. The if statement and competition statement was taken out from previous conference calls.

    -HPVE and Power Electronics are new exciting technologies. And I agree there is a significant market potential here to attack MOVCD current market strategies for enhancement. GTAT can offer potential 25% reduction in cost from current models.

    -"We are not worried about cash flow or the health of our business". "We wouldn't of doubled our R+D in a down cycle if we were worried about generating money and business". We are investing heavily now while everyone else is sitting idle to come out way ahead in the future with advanced new product technology which will clearly separate us from any competition"

    -Ion tech. It was stated they would be at cost with current glass producers like Corning's Gorilla Glass if developed. And if this is true, you can stick a big fat fork in Corning's Gorilla Glass.

    -Great presentation. Apparently no one else listened or had any comment.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • cali;
      There were a number of us listening and posting real time. Check out May 7th at 10:00am plus and minus. And I agree with your summary that it was a great presentation. Everyone here should listen to it.

      The 5% versus 10% comment for sapphire was telling and illustrates thru hyperole just how large this market potentially is. But what I was looking for in the presentation was a hint or clue about when we might hear about adoption of sapphire by major cellphone OEM's. Here, is where Rick described the confidentiality agreements prohibit GT from saying much about who, what, or when. An example was the iPhones use of sapphire for the camera lens cover, which was revealed when the cellphone was announced by Apple. Therefore, the first time we'll hear about a major OEM sapphire cellphone screen is when the cellphone is announced. Rick did point out that GT will be able to announce a major ASF order and how many units; just probably will not be able to announce who. He also said it is not a question of IF sapphire will be used for cellphone screens but WHEN it will be adopted.

      I'm looking primarily at this year, so the other key point I took away was on GT's guidance between revs of $500M to $600M depends on how fast sapphire is adopted for cellphones: the $500M number assumes slow adoption and the $600M assumes faster adoption. That $100M difference in revs will factor in bigtime in share price for this year. Next year, GT will be out of the woods and has enough new (HiCz, SiC) to put it well on the growth curve.

      -the bum

    • I didn't listen so I greatly appreciate your summary. I like the off the chart statement. But of course the inventory problem with main adoption is a real problem. 5% would equate to 35 million phones. Do we think an apple or google would put out a low volume sales phone at such a high price to create that exclusivity? Or would they be called special limited edition phones?

      I think at first we'll need to hang our hat on the camera covers to triple production and real adoption won't start until the ion tech is fully running. There is a roadmap however to great earnings for the next several years which I find very encouraging.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to on_pphire
      • tdsnow May 13, 2013 8:05 AM Flag

        Don't get ahead of yourself on the ion tech stuff. I'm definitely excited about the possibilities GTAT has with reducing production costs using their hyperion technology in the solar and power electronics fields. Hyperion will also probably have some uses in the sapphire field but I still have my doubts about using it for sapphire on cell phones or tablets.

        The laminate would be the thickness of a human hair and bonded to plastic or glass. While I realize that even at this thickness it wouldn't scratch, it seems to me like it could easily shatter if bumped on a sharp corner of a desk. I remember hangman posting awhile back questioning whether the laminate would have uses in the military since it was "bullet proof". At forty microns thin, it's not like it is some magic force field that can't be penetrated!

      • -The x Phone is said to have multiple phone models being released under the title name, not just one model. The base cost is supposed to be somewhere in the $100-$400 range, so this isn't a highly expensive phone for what I know. There is going to be significant volume here. The changes in the tech here are geared from my perspective to steal market share from apple with the sapphire switch.

        -The big rumor with apple is they are skipping the 5s and going straight to the I-6, which is rumored to have sapphire.

        -Neither of these phones are set to release until later this year, which is the exact time GTAT said orders will start to flow and the ramp will begin.

        -I believe google kick starts everything.

        -There is no way all players are going to wait for the ion to be released. Sapphire is a significant selling angle in the consumer market for someone that wants an unbreakable unscratchable phone. Google is getting the leg up here with the first release pending when its official.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • duesis27 May 12, 2013 12:52 PM Flag

      Good and important info. Thanks for the post. All sounds very good. Patience.