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GT Advanced Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • johnb9073 johnb9073 Jul 4, 2013 6:20 PM Flag

    On topic: Interesting FSLR article about solar cycle

    One expert (FWIW) stating most estimates of the next cycle underestimated, and that it will pick up earlier than most think. Wouldn't it be something if Sapphire gets going, and solar gets hot at the same time, not to mention some of the other products. Could be a perfect storm brewing, but then George Clooney didn't make it in the last one, so hopefully this one turns out better.

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    • Eagerly hoping and waiting that is exactly the case.
      As soon as China opens up it's domestic market like they've said for a while margins across the board will return to profitable levels.

      As for the sapphire industry, I believe I've read enough positive information to believe this industry is coming of age.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to cavedraco5
      • -New estimate is 38+ GW installed this year worldwide for solar, as huge demand surges 2nd half of 2013 between China and Japan. It is stated that some Chinese players will be reporting positive eps and margins the tail end this year for the first time in about 10 quarters. The tariff decision between the EU and China will be a major factor in all of this, as it still is not resolved and may not be resolved for quite some time. If nothing is resolved by August, automatic duties are increased to China which could mess things up again until December.

        -Let's assume the tariff non-sense is finally put to rest pre-August. Even if we get the 38GW this year, its still not going to benefit GTAT in any way in 2013, and maybe not 2014 imo. All of the Chinese players still have major cash flow problems to upgrade their currently technology, but at least the oversupply can finally be halted, just not cleared off the table.

        -2018 is forecasted to produce around 65GW / year worth around 180 billion to the solar industry. If the black tariff cloud goes away, Im hopeful we could hit 50gw in 2014 making the demand curve much steeper by the time 2018 rolls around. GTAT will not benefit here until the Chinese banks start extending additional credit for upgrades along with positive cash flows and eps levels for the Chinese players. At best we probably won't see any significant income driven by GTAT here until the tail end of 2014 or even 2015 for hicz solar technology.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
GTAT
11.16-0.45(-3.88%)Sep 19 4:15 PMEDT

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