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  • johnnie_beans johnnie_beans Oct 16, 2013 4:58 PM Flag

    Polysilicon supply may be restrained or even become insufficient in the first quarter of 2014.

    Better prospects in polysilicon market lead to increased PV demand in 1Q14, says EnergyTrend
    Press release, October 16 [Wednesday 16 October 2013]

    According to EnergyTrend, the intensive pricing competition in the photovoltaic (PV) market has gradually come to an end. Due to the increased demand in emerging markets, solar system demand in 2014 is likely to rise substantially. The total amount of grid-connected installations is likely to reach 28.6GW in 2013, and total shipments in 2013 will be around 33.3GW, which shows that overall supply in the PV market can be somewhat sufficient. Although total module shipments may be about 40GW in 2014, the actual amount of grid-connected installations will only be around 39.5GW. Module supplies, therefore, may be somewhat restricted.

    The oversupply situation in the global PV industry in the past few years has led to decreased polysilicon pricing. Since most new makers continue to suffer from losses, they have suspended production successively since the second half of 2012, which has caused global polysilicon capacity to continue to decline. However, market demand may increase in 2014, but as it may take about a quarter to get polysilicon production lines restarted, EnergyTrend believes that polysilicon supply may be restrained or even become insufficient in the first quarter of 2014.

    Q1 2014 is just around the corner folks.

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    • -This information whether old, misinformed, or didn't factor in Q3's recent report which surprised on the upside, is not correct. Total installs alone for 2013, through Q3, is 24.6GW worldwide. Q4 is expected by everyone, unless China lays down and halts everything, is expected to be by far the largest quarter of the year, forecasted at 9-13GW. So for 2013 only, you are looking at a low of 33.6 and a high of 37.6. Not this outdated 28.6 number they presented here for 2013. This sounds like the same misinformed person stating sapphire is 10 times more expensive than a gorilla glass phone at $30 bucks a cover as of today.

      -Even if this number hits 37.6 at the peak of the 2013, I don't see a huge spike in poly sales coming from China in Q1. I do see it happening mid to back end 2014.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to cali_sun99
      • Thanks for the heads up, Cali_sun99. Even better!

        Its seems widely accepted that a more full blown upgrade cycle is expected to happen in late 2014 or early 2015, so when do these orders start coming in? I would imagine the orders will come in a full 6 to 8 months ahead of this event. I think backlog starts blowing up late in the first quarter of 2014, and that we'll start too see a gradual improvement in revenue generated from POLY and PV streams thanks to a faster than anticipated solar recover and the addition of new solar markets popping up globally.

        This in conjunction with the tremendous demand for sapphire moving forward makes GTAT such a hot play. These industry trends don't just start and end over night. This will last for years to come along with the rise in GTAT's stock price.

        There is not a more exciting stock to hold that I know of, and if anyone thinks there's anything out there like GTAT that has the potential to really explode, I'd love to hear about it.

        The street has not taken hold of GTAT yet, but when they do.... wow...
        I think a SCTY, SPWR, and TSLA like move is going to happen here.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • I think mid but the market is forward looking so even if its in the back half the stock will be steaming ahead and the stock should be higher. Keep the posts up Cali and any other informed investor who has facts keep posting. SPWR is blowing the cover on the ball. SPWR claims to have 24% efficient ratings for there panels. Cali you hearing any new developments with GTAT latest equipment offerings. JKS, CSIQ are two others that just keep going higher. Sure would be sweet if GTAT rocket like the 3 I mentioned. I quit my day job soon when that happens.

    • Wow... amazing..
      Great find and post.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy